Weather Lab Blog

SNOW OR NO SNOW?

2009-12-01T16:13:00.003-06:00

The images above are two different computer models showing the precipitation output for tomorrow evening. They clearly differ and mean snow vs no snow for the Ozarks. If the top model is correct then accumulating snow is possible, mainly on grassy surfaces. Most places will see little or no accumulation, but if a heavy band sets up then a couple inches is possible.

Here's a list of the factors limiting snowfall across the Ozarks:

1. The track and speed of the low

2. Dry air in place

3. Timing of maximum lift and cold air

4. Air and ground temperature

The image on top aka NAM model is showing the low tracking much closer to the Ozarks than the image on bottom aka GFS model.

Overall there's a chance for rain changing over to snow. The chance for light accumulation is greatest to the southeast of Springfield. Rain chances will increase after 12pm and a change over is possible during the late afternoon and evening hours from northwest to southeast before the precipitation exits east.

Damp and Chilly. Snow?

2009-11-17T12:13:00.001-06:00

Well, the chances for our rain showers mixing with snow are about as good as they were. The coldest air now is in extreme southwest Missouri and is not likely to warm much at all this afternoon. The final volley of showers is wrapping around this long-discussed upper level low along an area of converging air.

For snow die-hards, it is still possible in the early evening where the showers wrapping in from the north meet up with the chilliest air. Or at the core of the heavier rain showers. Later tonight and toward morning east of Springfield is another possibility. Elevation will help. NONE of this will amount to more than an inch and only then in grassy areas.

Don't worry, we'll likely have a shot at a real snow this winter. How's that for a forecast! I'm also officially predicting some warmer temperatures this summer...

Ted Keller
Senior Meteorologist
KOLR/KSFX-TV
Storm chasing and more at:
Ceaseless Wind

Rain Chances Late in the Weekend

2009-11-13T12:37:00.002-06:00

The models run at a shorter range are now picking up on some pretty good rain late Sunday and Monday. The longer range models have been hinting at this all week too, although they have been way up in the 3" plus range.

There has also been intermittent talk of snow showers early next week. There is a cold core of air aloft in the wake of this rain event which is close to supporting snow in theory. This situation looks interesting but the temperatures at the ground will likely end up too warm to support snow. There is a chance it could mix with lighter showers expected near the core of cold air.

Ted Keller
Senior Meteorologist
KOLR/KSFX-TV
Storm chasing and more at:
Ceaseless Wind

Project Vortex 2 Year 1 Summary

2009-11-11T08:35:00.002-06:00

This is a summary of what project Vortex 2 accomplished during their first year of operation. It was a very slow severe weather season in 2009, at least within the project’s time and space domain.

The Missouri State University chase class converged with the Vortex 2 armada in Sterling, CO on the evening of Thursday June 4th, the day before they (and Vortex 2!) caught their first tornado near LaGrange, WY, indicated by the red dot on the map.

Many of you on the trip were aware that Matt Gingery parted ways with us in Clinton, MO while on the way home Sunday to go chase in northwest Missouri! On this day, one storm in particular crossed into extreme northwest Missouri. It was well-sampled by Vortex 2 but non-tornadic during the sampling. I believe Matt blogged about this chase on this site. If not, I’m sure he can chime in!

I’ll be curious to see if data collected from that storm produces any insight as to why a tornado didn’t form.

More on Project Vortex 2.

The inserted slide was from a Powerpoint presentation with the following authors listed:

Howie Bluestein (University of Oklahoma)
Don Burgess (CIMMS)
David Dowell (NCAR)
Paul Markowski (Penn State)
Erik Rasmussen (CIMMS)
Yvette Richardson (Penn State)
Lou Wicker (NSSL)
Josh Wurman (CSWR)

Ted Keller
Senior Meteorologist
KOLR/KSFX-TV
Storm chasing and more at:
Ceaseless Wind

Severe Weather Conference

2009-11-09T10:34:00.002-06:00

I attended the College of DuPage Severe Weather Symposium held from November 5-7 in Downers Grove, IL.

Some background: the College of DuPage has the longest running, organized storm chase class which just passed its twentieth chase season. Other courses offered at the college provide beginning students of meteorology a “leg up” by providing valuable hands on experience. The program is headed up by professor Paul Sirvakta. Paul is a genuinely nice guy and great facilitator which is why the program is such a success.

Many of you may know that Missouri State University offered a similar (at least logistically) chase class this past June ‘09. It is safe to say that the framework, it not the actual seed for the idea, came from the College of DuPage program.

You can read more about this and other severe weather topics at the website listed below.

Ted Keller
Senior Meteorologist
KOLR/KSFX-TV
Storm chasing and more at:
Ceaseless Wind

Rain, Rain, Rain

2009-10-30T17:01:00.002-05:00

Yesterday’s rain total for Springfield was logged at 1.72″ which is a record for that date, 10/29. This has pushed our October rain total to 9.97″ or 6.75″ above a normal October!

The heaviest rain areas occurred east and southeast of Springfield and included numerous 4″ plus totals and even a few over the 5″ mark.

The National Weather Service has a complete rainfall report here.

Ted Keller
Senior Meteorologist
KOLR/KSFX-TV
Storm chasing and more at:
Ceaseless Wind

Late Week Storm

2009-10-27T16:12:00.005-05:00

The story of the week is the approach of a powerful storm in the upper atmosphere, scheduled to arrive in the Thursday/Friday time frame.

The system is expected to "occlude" which means the most unstable air should stay south of the majority of the Ozarks. This should have the affect of keeping widespread severe thunderstorms either out of our area or possible south of Springfield in extreme southern Missouri or northern Arkansas.

Rainfall seems to be exploding more to our east and southeast as per the HPC rainfall forecast. Computer model forecasts for Springfield specifically are all over, ranging from only around .25" to well over 1.00". It seems as if areas most likely to skew to inches of rain would be areas to the south and southeast of Springfield.

Ted Keller
Senior Meteorologist
KOLR/KSFX-TV
Storm chasing and more at:
Ceaseless Wind

Big Storm Late Week

2009-10-26T15:55:00.002-05:00

The system hung up over the Ozarks Monday and Tuesday is wet but rather weak.

A much stronger weather system is taking shape for Thursday and Friday, one which will bring strong, possibly severe, storms to the Ozarks along with more heavy rain.

More on this developing storm on KOLR News at 5, 6 & 10 and Fox News @ Nine!

Ted Keller
Senior Meteorologist
KOLR/KSFX-TV
Storm chasing and more at:
Ceaseless Wind

Coolest Has Ruled!

2009-10-26T15:49:00.005-05:00

It's interesting to note that since July, every month has seen its average temperature below normal:

July: -4.3
August: -3.8
September: -2.2
October(through 25th): -7.6

I will talk more about these stats and also "reflect" on the unusual amount of rain and cloud days through this same period tonight at 5, 6 & 10 on KOLR and FOX News @ Nine!

Ted Keller
Senior Meteorologist
KOLR/KSFX-TV
Storm chasing and more at:
Ceaseless Wind

Frost/Freeze Tonight

2009-10-17T16:30:00.002-05:00

The clouds we've been wanting to get rid of will finally break rather quickly tonight allowing temperatures to plummet!

The center of the high where the calmest winds will be will pass over central Missouri tonight and this area is under the greatest risk for a sun-freezing low temperature. The rest of the area will likely experience a pretty good frost.

Ted Keller
Senior Meteorologist
KOLR/KSFX-TV
Storm chasing and more at:
Ceaseless Wind

Winter Outlook

2009-10-17T16:26:00.002-05:00

The government (NOAA) has issued a forecast for the winter season. This is an El Nino year which means the waters in the equatorial eastern Pacific are unusually warm.

Every El Nino is slightly different but generally speaking, the southern storm track becomes more active especially in the western and southeastern U.S. Dry and mild air occupies much and the central and northern U.S. The centers of dry/moist warm/cold are away from the Ozarks which means we are somewhat "El Nino Neutral" with no probability of a significant pattern shift.

It should be noted that our multi-month run of below normal temperatures and slightly wet conditions seems poised to continue. Except for a spurt of warmth this week (still mostly below the norm), the forecast for just about the rest of October is a cool one.

It might work out that our winter will see a progression of "dry" cool fronts with cooler but not bitterly cold air following and that every once in a while one of these fronts will hang up along with a slight change in the jet stream and spit out meaningful precipitation; the exact type a bit hard to pin down honestly.

The complete NOAA forecast link.

Ted Keller
Senior Meteorologist
KOLR/KSFX-TV
Storm chasing and more at:
Ceaseless Wind

FALL FOLIAGE

2009-10-12T15:04:00.007-05:00

We need cool sunny days followed by cooler nights to have good color. It takes sunny days with temperatures in the 50s, then cooler nights with temperatures in the lower 40s to produce strong color. The temperatures spread between day and night needs to be at least 10 degrees and 15 degrees is better. A frost does not help develop strong color. If leaves freeze hard the chemical process of color change stops and the leaves simply turn brown. Leaves are changing fast but is atleast 2 weeks away from the major peak color across southern Missouri and northern Arkansas.

FALL FOLIAGE LINKS:

http://www.na.fs.fed.us/spfo/pubs/misc/leaves/leaves.htm

http://www.fs.fed.us/r9/conditions/fall_color/

http://mdc.moa.gov/nathis/seasons/fall/

http://www.ozarkmtns.com/foliage/reports.asp

FLOODING UPDATE and TOTALS

2009-10-09T14:37:00.006-05:00

A FLOOD WARNING is in effect for the following rivers:

JAMES RIVER AT GALENA, BIG PINEY RIVER AT FORT LEONARD WOOD ,SAD RIVER NEAR CAPLINGER MILLS, ELK RIVER, LITTLE OSAGE RIVER, MARMATON RIVER, OSAGE RIVER, SHOAK CREAK, AND SPRING RIVER.

Do not drive through flowing water. Nearly half of all flood fatalities are vehicle related. As little as 6" of water may cause you to loose control of your vehical. Two feet of water will carry most vehicles away.

A FLOOD WARNING remains in effect until 10 am on Saturday.

STORM RAINFALL TOTALS FROM VIEWERS:

- 6" between Strafford and Northview

- 9.75" in Urbana

- 7 to 7.5" east of Marshfield

- 6.5" west of Gainesville

- 4.5" yesterday and 3.5" today in Nixa

- 6.8" west of Nixa

- 7" in Rogersville

- 7" in Stotts City

- 4.88" in Battlefield

- 4.78" in Mtn. Home

- 6.5" in Ozark

- 5.03" in Seymour

- 5.5 to 5.75" in Springfield

- 4" in Barnett

-7.35" total in Battlefield

FLASH FLOOD WARNINGS & TORNADO WATCH

2009-10-08T20:12:00.002-05:00

The tornado watch in Arkansas also includes Ozark, Howell and Oregon counties in SE MO. The watch is in effect until 3am. The severe threat will increase tonight as a line-segment moves across Arkansas. A tornado threat along with hail and damaging winds will be possible with supercells that develop and bowing line-segments. The biggest threat tonight will come from the rain and flash flooding.

SIGNIFICANT FLOODING IS POSSIBLE

2009-10-08T14:41:00.007-05:00

Heavy rain stretching all the way from Texas to Ohio is tracking over the same areas and causing flash flooding. Several counties are under flash flood warnings and the entire viewing area is under a flash flood watch until Friday morning. The axis of heavy rainfall is forecast to slowly shift southeastward tonight and tomorrow. If it's not raining where you are, it will be by tonight. An additional 3-5" of rain is forecast to fall with locally higher amounts exceeding 6". Many roadways across the northern part of the Ozarks are impassible and that trend will only worsen tonight further south. Be prepared to move to higher grounds if you experience flooding. Don't risk your life by attempting to cross a flooded roadway.

MAJOR STORM SYSTEM

2009-10-07T14:15:00.004-05:00

All the right ingredients are forecast to come together on Thursday for strong to severe storms to develop from Texas to Oklahoma to the Ozarks. The environment is favorable for tornadoes in isolated cells that develop and perhaps within a broken squall line. Damaging wind gusts and hail will also be possible. The greatest threat for severe storms as of today is across northeastern Oklahoma. The timing of the event is during the afternoon and evening hours before weakening across the Ozarks during the overnight hours. The main threats across the Ozarks will be damaging straight line winds and hail to the size of quarters. Strong wind shear will create a marginal risk for an isolated tornado across far southwest Missouri.

The biggest concern from the slow moving frontal system is for heavy rainfall and flooding on Thursday and Thursday night. Overnight, scattered storms will be possible across the far northwestern corner of the Ozarks. Severe storms are not expected during that time frame. Heavy rainfall leading to flash flooding is expected on Thursday into early Friday. Widespread amounts of 3-5", with locally higher amounts are possible. A flash flood watch remains in effect from late tonight through Friday morning. This episode of heavy rainfall will result in significant flooding of small streams, creeks and rivers.

REMEMBER TO NEVER TRY AND DRIVE ACROSS A FLOODED ROADWAY!

FLASH FLOODING KILLS MORE PEOPLE EACH YEAR THAN TORNADOES AND LIGHTNING!!

COLDEST AIR OF THE SEASON

2009-09-27T15:37:00.003-05:00

Low pressure tracking across the Great Lakes region sends a cold front through tonight. It will be windy and warm ahead of the front and breezy and much colder behind the front. Highs will struggle early in the week to rise to 70 degrees and overnight lows in the 40s will be common. Record lows are not expected though temperatures will be running around 10 degrees below normal.

By the middle of the week, the cold air lifts out and seasonal air moves in ahead of the next approaching storm system. The good thing about this week is that we'll see dry weather lasting until Thursday.

A POTENT SYSTEM LATE IN THE WEEK

2009-09-27T15:32:00.002-05:00

Computer models continue to indicate a strong storm system swinging southward across the Midwest on Thursday and causing strong to severe storms to develop. The timing has fluctuated over the past few days though the overall consensus has been Thursday evening all along. We'll continue to monitor the development of this system and pass along any new information as we receive it. The air mass following this system is nearly as cold as the one moving in early in the week.

SUMMER-LIKE SUNDAY

2009-09-26T16:29:00.004-05:00

Temperatures rise above normal on Sunday, with highs in the lower to middle 80s. Normal highs are in the upper 70s this time of year. Southwest winds increase ahead of an approaching cold front tomorrow, which will advect the summer-like air mass northward. The cold front is set to pass through at night and bring fall readings to the Ozarks early in the week.

A BIG COOL DOWN IS COMING...

2009-09-26T16:22:00.002-05:00

A dry cold front is forecast to pass through on Sunday night and bring the coldest air of the season so far. Highs will struggle to rise into the 70s on Monday. Lows in the lower 40s are a good possibility by Tuesday morning, which is the coldest air we've experienced since the middle of May. The below normal air mass will only linger for a couple of days before we warm back up again.

Heavy Rain Tonight

2009-09-21T17:47:00.001-05:00

A slow moving front will continue to drop in some cases inches of rain on the Ozarks through tonight. The areas which will receive the most are portions of Greene, Lawrence, Barry, Jasper, Newton and McDonald Counties in Missouri and Benton and Washington Counties in northwest Arkansas where over 3" could fall locally.

Ted Keller
Senior Meteorologist
KOLR/KSFX-TV
Storm chasing and more at:
Ceaseless Wind

STRONG STORM SYSTEM EARLY IN THE WEEK

2009-09-20T16:03:00.005-05:00

The jetstream digging southward across the Midwest sends a strong cold front our way. The right atmospheric conditions will come together causing severe storms to develop late on Monday. The primary threats are damaging winds, large hail and flooding rains. The western Ozarks stand the greatest chance of experiencing severe weather. Areas to the east of highway 65 will mainly deal with weaking storms and heavy rainfall late on Monday night and into Tuesday morning.

Here is a general rainfall forecast for Monday night through Tuesday night. Locally higher amounts will definitely be possible. The heaviest rain is forecast to fall across an area that has already seens several inches of rain. Flash flooding is a definite concern and a watch may be issued later in time from the National Weather Service.

SATURDAY'S BLOB OF RAIN

2009-09-19T12:37:00.004-05:00

This is the radar image as of 12:35 pm on Saturday. A blob of rain with isolated storms is tracking northwestward at 30 mph. The heaviest rain is concentrated southeast of I-44. A flash flood warning is in effect until 5pm across southern Ozark, northern Marion and northern Baxter county. Radar estimates are greater than 2" across MO/AR border, which has fallen since 8 am. Be careful when driving today across the warned area because runoff from the heavy rainfall will cause flooding of small streams, creeks, county roads as well as farmland.

STRONG FRONT ARRIVES ON MONDAY-TUESDAY

2009-09-19T12:15:00.005-05:00

A strong cold front approaches the Ozarks on Monday. The image above is the frontal position forecast for Monday morning.

There is a slight risk for severe storms on Monday afternoon and evening across western Missouri. The main risks are damaging winds and hail.

The front is expected to produce heavy rainfall which could lead to flash flooding. The image above shows the amount of rain forecast to fall from now until Tuesday morning. Heavy rain along the front will start impacting our western counties on Monday afternoon and evening and then slowly spread eastward with time. H.P.C. is forecasting 1-2" of rain with locally higher amounts.

Cooler Air on the Way.

2009-09-18T14:27:00.002-05:00

The cool front responsible for the storms and rain Monday will move through. Another "cut-off" low in the upper atmosphere is expected to form midweek. This will keep us cool and fairly cloudy post-front. There is a chance for forty-degree lows with this latest shot of cool air.

Ted Keller
Senior Meteorologist
KOLR/KSFX-TV
Storm chasing and more at:
Ceaseless Wind

Severe Storms Monday?

2009-09-18T14:24:00.002-05:00

There is a possibility of strong to severe storms on Monday through the central U.S. including the Ozarks.

A cool front is the culprit this time. The front is expected to pass through the Ozarks late Monday. Rainfall amounts could also exceed one inch in many areas late Monday and early Tuesday with this system.

Ted Keller
Senior Meteorologist
KOLR/KSFX-TV
Storm chasing and more at:
Ceaseless Wind

Cool Summer for Much of the U.S.

2009-09-15T16:10:00.004-05:00

The Ozarks were not alone in having a cool summer. The states in blue all recorded below normal conditions and the numbers indicate the ranking of the state on its overall coolest summer list. Missouri ended up 12th and Arkansas was 23rd.

A persistent trough of low pressure aloft not only kept a constant supply of cool air flowing south from Canada but also kept clouds in the picture through much of the Great Lakes and New England.

We had ranked cool months in July and August in the Ozarks. A heat wave in late June and a brief burst of hot temperatures in early August are the only signs of summer we had in the region.

Complete NOAA report

Ted Keller
Senior Meteorologist
KOLR/KSFX-TV
Storm chasing and more at:
Ceaseless Wind

Low Pressure Backing Up

2009-09-15T15:42:00.003-05:00

A weak and isolated low which was previously thought to be moving eastward by later in the week is now forecast to stall a bit more and probably track westward, passing south of the Ozarks, between now and Saturday.

The upshot of this is to keep rain chances going as long as this feature is close by. The 1-3 day rainfall forecast through Friday from the HPC is included, showing areas of western Arkansas forecast to pick up in excess of 4" as a result of this feature.

In the Ozarks, the rain totals ramp up quickly moving southward. A few inches of rain are conceivable in portions of Arkansas.

Bands of showers rotating around this feature will be capabile of producing locally heavy downpours in isolated sections of Missouri too.

It appears as if a weekend cool front will finally "kick" the rain system out of here at that time.

Ted Keller
Senior Meteorologist
KOLR/KSFX-TV
Storm chasing and more at:
Ceaseless Wind

Wichita Flooding Rains

2009-09-08T17:18:00.003-05:00

A cluster of rain and storms dumped on Wichita early this morning and afternoon. Rainfall totals range from about 2″ to as much as 6″ in the northeastern portion of the city.

The included image is radar-estimated rainfall from the radar site at the airport in Wichita (the data “hole” in southwestern Wichita) which estimates as much as 5-6″ of rain fell in the northeastern part of the city shown in red. Ground measurements verify the radar estimate, a few storm reports:

1034 AM HEAVY RAIN 3 ENE DOWNTOWN WICHITA 37.70N 97.29W
09/08/2009 M4.41 INCH SEDGWICK KS MESONET

STORM TOTAL MEASURED SINCE MIDNIGHT…RAIN STILL
FALLING…REPORT COURTESY KSN WEATHERLAB SITE AT WICHITA
STATE UNIVERSITY

0820 AM HEAVY RAIN BEL AIRE 37.76N 97.27W
09/08/2009 M6.00 INCH SEDGWICK KS BROADCAST MEDIA

FROM THE START OF EVENT THROUGH 820 AM. RELAYED THROUGH
KWCH WEATHER.

0933 AM HEAVY RAIN ANDOVER 37.69N 97.14W
09/08/2009 M4.13 INCH BUTLER KS MESONET

RAIN STILL FALLING…REPORT COURTESY OF KSN WEATHERLAB
SITE AT ANDOVER MIDDLE SCHOOL

Ted Keller
Senior Meteorologist
KOLR/KSFX-TV
Storm chasing and more at:
Ceaseless Wind

Flash Flood Watch

2009-09-08T17:12:00.005-05:00

A cluster of rain and some storms with locally heavy rain will visit portions of western Missouri this evening and tonight. Several inches of rain could fall locally along the highway 71 corridor tonight.

Ted Keller
Senior Meteorologist
KOLR/KSFX-TV
Storm chasing and more at:
Ceaseless Wind

Dense fog develops tonight

2009-09-05T16:13:00.002-05:00

Dense fog is expected to develop tonight where the sky clears. The greatest chance for clearing will be along and to the west of highways 65. Fog will begin forming anytime after 10 pm and become thick by morning. If you are doing any late night or early morning traveling, be prepared to slow down and turn off your brights due to low visibility. Fog forms when the air temperature cools and equals the dew point temperature.

HOLIDAY WEEKEND & LABOR DAY FORECAST

2009-09-05T16:01:00.003-05:00

An upper level low tracking across central Missouri this afternoon will continue to drift northeastward with time. As it departs, we'll see a spread in weather conditions across the Ozarks on Sunday afternoon. It will be drier and sunnier across western Missouri and Arkansas than compared to the eastern half. Just like this afternoon, showers and storms will pop up on Sunday afternoon but mainly to the east of I-44. Severe weather is not expected, through locally heavy rain is possible with the strongest of storms.

On Labor day the low will be further away than it will be on Sunday, which means less of a chance for showers and storms during the afternoon and evening hours. Slight chances remain possible from Rolla to West Plains to Mtn. Home and points eastward, otherwise it should be dry to enjoy the day off with friends and family. Temperatures will approach seasonal norms, with highs in the lower to middle 80s.

Tropical Storm Erika Forms

2009-09-01T15:37:00.002-05:00

Tropical Storm Erika looks good on the visible satellite image with a core of organized thunderstorms and good “exhaust” on at the top of the storm. But like “Ana” and “Danny”, Erika has the thunderstorm area displaced to the east of a area of circulation. There is some shear affecting its development at present but plenty of warm water so the storm should strengthen a tad over the next few days.

Ted Keller
Senior Meteorologist
KOLR/KSFX-TV
Storm chasing and more at:
Ceaseless Wind

August 2009 Review

2009-09-01T14:42:00.000-05:00

August started on a Saturday with a rain along front which cleared by later in the day. This was followed by a great Sunday. But heat and humidity swelled into the area on Monday the 3rd with dew points and temperatures jumping about 16-18 in a day!

We returned to the pattern of stalled fronts to the north and east firing clusters of storms affecting portions of the Ozarks. A front did manage to keep temperatures in check around the 5th/6th. The heat returned again on the weekend with middle 90's but with a great breeze!

Another front provided rain and cooler temperatures on Monday 10th. Heavy rains fell on this day including a record 2.58" at the SGF NWS. Widespread 2-3" totals occurred in portions Greene, Polk and St. Clair Counties with isolated 4" totals. A very quiet period followed for the rest of the week and into the weekend of the 15/16th. It was a great viewing for the Perseid Meteor shower! Lots of attention on what tropical disburbances in the eastern Atlantic will do including incipent "Bill" and a forgotten "Claudette". The weekend of the 15/16th contained a fair amount of afternoon cloudiness and some rain showers especially west and north of Springfield.

Another front visited on Monday the 17th with some heavy rain totals. But the main front of this week arrived early Thursday. Out ahead of it on Wednesday evening, a tornado watch was posted; a rarity for August. A bowing segment in southeasternKansass turned into a large squall line which blew through the Ozarks. Tornado warnings were hoisted for portions of Dade, Laclede, Newton, McDonald and Barry counties. An EF1 tornado occurred north of Roby in Texas County. Numerous reports of 50-60 mph winds and some light damage. An active storm traveled from Newton and McDonald and into Barry around the midnight hour with several reports of wall clouds and funnels.

A period of much below normal weather set into the area again the following the storms including a fantastic weekend the 22/23 with cool and dry air dominating. In fact, the rest of the month featured below normal temperatures.

The record for Springfield indicates only six ninety-degree high temperatures for August compared to eight days where the high was below eighty. The low dipped into the fifties or lower a total of seven times. The coolest air culmenated with one final high pressure system which produced a tied record low of 48 on the morning of the 31st.

Not counting duplicate averages, this August ranks right around the 10th coolest on record!

Ted Keller
Senior Meteorologist
KOLR/KSFX-TV
Storm chasing and more at:
Ceaseless Wind

Approaching or breaking record lows tonight

2009-08-30T15:32:00.002-05:00

Canadian high pressure sends the coolest air of the summer our way tonight and early tomorrow morning. It will be cold enough for an early frost across parts of the Great Lakes region. We will not get that cold, but cold enough to break a few records.

Enough moisture may be present that Springfield just misses getting down to record cold levels tonight. It will be a close call for records to be reached in Rolla and West Plains. Joplin stands the best chance of beating the old record low of 55 degrees. Record or not, it's going to be cold tonight and you definitely won't need air conditioning on! Open up your windows and save a little money. :)

Late week clouds & shower chances

2009-08-30T15:27:00.002-05:00

A disturbance that's currently located across the Pacific northwest will slip southward and remain stagnant across the central Plains from Wednesday through Saturday. The Ozarks will experience a split in weather conditions from west to east. The best chance for rain and cloud cover will be from highway 65 and points westward and the driest and sunniest conditions will be across the eastern Ozarks. Temperatures are forecast to remain below normal through next weekend.

TIME TO TURN ON THE HEATER?

2009-08-29T16:00:00.004-05:00

Canadian high pressure is building southward and will make it feel like fall over the next few days. Most places will experience lows in the 50s on Sunday morning. The further north/northeast you live, the cooler it will be.

The coldest air since June 5th, arrives on Monday morning. Many locations will likely break old record lows. You'll definitely want to turn off the air conditioner and perhaps turn on the heat. Sounds crazy, huh?

AUGUST 31st RECORD LOWS
Springfield: 48 1967

Joplin: 55 1987

West Plains: 50 1988

Rolla: 48 1967

Cool Snap, Again

2009-08-28T17:48:00.003-05:00

The jet stream is digging southward over our heads this weekend, dragging the chilliest air this season down from Canada and helping developing tropical storm "Danny" to stay mostly at sea.

This pattern will give us lows in the fifties for the entire seven day forecast! The coolest point will be Monday when widespread forties are likely in the Ozarks. The record low for Springfield that morning is 48 and we will be quite close.

The weekend will stay much below normal. Highs will stay in the seventies; a pattern which will last through most, if not all, of next week.

Ted Keller
Senior Meteorologist
KOLR/KSFX-TV
Storm chasing and more at:
Ceaseless Wind

Forties Possible?

2009-08-26T22:21:00.002-05:00

The chart pictured shows the temperature output from various computer models for the weekend and early next week. The GFS model is the only one which projects beyond Saturday as of today at least. The 12Z (7 a.m.) and 18Z (1 p.m.) refer to the run times of the model. The GFS is run four times a day.

The lines for two consecutive runs drop into the forties on Monday morning. One run makes it this chilly Tuesday morning as well.

Ted Keller
Senior Meteorologist
KOLR/KSFX-TV
Storm chasing and more at:
Ceaseless Wind

Next Cool Push

2009-08-26T15:51:00.003-05:00

It is very possible that at least a portion of the Ozarks will experience forty-degree low temperatures on Monday morning. A strong cool front will drop in Saturday. This will produce yet another string of unseasonably cool days in the Ozarks, lasting into next week.

The most likely area for lows this cold would be northest of Springfield from around Lake of the Ozarks southeastward to Shannon County. The record low for Springfield Monday morning is 48.

Since this will occur on the last day of August, it will alter our average temperature for the month, possibly to a top ten ranking for coolest Augusts on record.

Ted Keller
Senior Meteorologist
KOLR/KSFX-TV
Storm chasing and more at:
Ceaseless Wind

Danny Forms

2009-08-26T15:45:00.003-05:00

Tropical storm "Danny" formed quickly today. The fourth named storm of the Atlantic season as winds to 45 mph. The National Hurricane Center is forecasting Danny to become a hurricane sometime early on Saturday off the coast of North Carolina. This will be while the storm is making a turn more to the north. It looks like Danny will follow a more westerly track as compared to Bill. This means the storm will track closer to coastal areas of New England this weekend.

Ted Keller
Senior Meteorologist
KOLR/KSFX-TV
Storm chasing and more at:
Ceaseless Wind

Cool August

2009-08-24T17:38:00.006-05:00

24 days into August, we've only recorded six high temperatures in the 90's with none expected through the close of the month. All but four days saw high temperatures below normal. Low temperatures have dropped into the fifties five times so far this month. As of the 23rd, our average temperature is about 75.4 degrees. The coldest August on record had an average temperature of 68.8 in 1915. The tenth coolest was 73.8 in 1904. Using the current temperature projections through the end of August, we would end up around 74.0 degrees.

All of this comes on the heels of a cool July; seventh coolest in Springfield and coolest ever for some areas east of the city.

With the arrival of another front on Friday, the average high will continue to drop this month. This cooler pattern of weather should last well into next week.

Ted Keller
Senior Meteorologist
KOLR/KSFX-TV
Storm chasing and more at:
Ceaseless Wind

Andrew Anniversary

2009-08-24T17:25:00.004-05:00

On August 24th, 1992, Hurricane Andrew made a beeline for the southeastern shore of Florida.

Ted Keller
Senior Meteorologist
KOLR/KSFX-TV
Storm chasing and more at:
Ceaseless Wind

Our Delightful Weekend!

2009-08-23T14:36:00.003-05:00

Wow, this weekend won't soon be forgotten! Plenty of sun, warm but not hot, very low humidity and even a breeze on Saturday combined to make our of the last weekends of summer a great one.

Our low temperature Saturday monring was 55 degrees. The record for this date was 50. The high on Saturday only reached 77 degrees officially at the airport.

Sunday started out cool again dropping down to 54 degrees. It looks unlikely we will crack 80 this afternoon once again!

The trend will be for temperatures to continue to slowly climb this week before another cool front ensures our below normal trends continue.

The official Climate Prediction Center forecasts keep us trending cool through early September.

Ted Keller
Senior Meteorologist
KOLR/KSFX-TV
Storm chasing and more at:
Ceaseless Wind

Bill Information

2009-08-21T15:28:00.005-05:00

Ted Keller
Senior Meteorologist
KOLR/KSFX-TV
Storm chasing and more at:
Ceaseless Wind

Leaning Toward Cool and Wet Still

2009-08-20T15:39:00.001-05:00

As the last days of August and summer come to a close, long range forecasts out to 10days (even 14 days) are pointing toward a continuation of the cooler and wetter trends of late. This pattern has been with us, with few interruptions, since the beginning of July. It is the result of a flow at the jet stream level which has been out of the northwest allowing cool fronts to slip southward at regular intervals. By my count, we have had nearly twenty "FROPA"'s (FROntal PAssages) since June 1st. Would you like to try counting these? Go to: http://www.hpc.ncep.noaa.gov/dailywxmap/

A pattern like this could also be cool and dry but the timing between fronts and the exact trajectory of the jet is allowing moisture and instability to build ahead of these systems and hence showers and storms can more easily develop. A review of the storms and rain of August 19/20 can be found here. If this pattern were more "amplified" (more north to south), we would still get the cool (likely even cooler) but the fronts would probably pass through "dry".

Ted Keller
Senior Meteorologist
KOLR/KSFX-TV
Storm chasing and more at:
Ceaseless Wind

Storm Summary August 19/20, 2009

2009-08-20T12:33:00.004-05:00

A tornado watch is August? Not too common. Chalk it up to the 2009 “summer of cool fronts” pattern. With a pattern like this, we are bound to get rain and severe weather. Last night, the Ozarks were treated to both. A map examining radar estimated rainfall shows common 2-4″ totals in a swath from southeastern Kansas southeastward to Barry County and including the Joplin/Carthage area. This area was hit repeatedly by rain and storms Wednesday and Wednesday night. Other areas receiving 1.5 inches of rain or greater include portions of Dallas, Laclede, Pulaski, Phelps, Texas, Dent, Shannon, Howell and Douglas Counties.

There were also widespread reports of severe or sub-severe wind gusts. The NWS confirms that an EF1 tornado caused the destruction of a mobile home north of Roby resulting in one injury. There were numerous wall cloud and funnel reports in McDonald, Newton and Barry county as well.

Ted Keller
Senior Meteorologist
KOLR/KSFX-TV
Storm chasing and more at:
Ceaseless Wind

Tornado Warning for Newton and McDonald Counties

2009-08-19T23:09:00.003-05:00

Newest tornado warning will affect Neosho within the next 30 minutes and might just threaten western Barry including Monett, Purdy and Cassville by midnight.

Ted Keller
Senior Meteorologist
KOLR/KSFX-TV
Storm chasing and more at:
Ceaseless Wind

Severe Update

2009-08-19T22:43:00.001-05:00

It is possible for an extention of the tornado warning into northwestern Greene and southern Polk.

Ted Keller
Senior Meteorologist
KOLR/KSFX-TV
Storm chasing and more at:
Ceaseless Wind

Severe Weather Update

2009-08-19T21:48:00.001-05:00

Line segment is bowing and will likely produce 70 mph winds from Joplin to Lamar over the next 45 minutes.

Ted Keller
Senior Meteorologist
KOLR/KSFX-TV
Storm chasing and more at:
Ceaseless Wind

Flash Flood Watch

2009-08-19T16:01:00.001-05:00

A flash flood watch has just issued for tonight and early Thursday for a portion of the viewing area. The watch is in effect for folks living north of a line from around Neosho to Eminence, Missouri.

Portions of Hickory, St. Clair, Benton, Polk, Camden and Dallas Counties have received pretty heavy rains the past two Mondays and would be the most prone to flash flooding.

The good news is this front will make a clean sweep of the area by Thursday afternoon and set us up for a fantastic Friday through Sunday!

Ted Keller
Senior Meteorologist
KOLR/KSFX-TV
Storm chasing and more at:
Ceaseless Wind

More Rain, Severe Storms?

2009-08-18T18:16:00.003-05:00

Yet another Summer 2009 front will work through the area starting Wednesday evening. With it, bands of showers ansd storms will lay down locally heavy rainfall. The area north of the line from Lamar to Salem will receive on average over an inch of rain with the Lake of the Ozarks area perhaps averaging closer to two inches. There is also a chance for severe storms with this front especially northwest of Springfield. This front drives temperatures back down for the weekend; look for lows in the fifties and highs averaging around eighty.

Ted Keller
Senior Meteorologist
KOLR/KSFX-TV
Storm chasing and more at:
Ceaseless Wind

Rainfall Today

2009-08-17T17:32:00.002-05:00

This is a radar estimate of rain today.

Ted Keller
Senior Meteorologist
KOLR/KSFX-TV
Storm chasing and more at:
Ceaseless Wind

Hurricane Camille

2009-08-17T16:23:00.003-05:00

Today is the anniversary of the landfall of Hurricane Camille, a category five storm which made landfall on the Mississippi coast in 1969.

Until the Karina disaster, Camille was the example of what a "worst case" gulf storm and the damage capable of producing.

Ted Keller
Senior Meteorologist
KOLR/KSFX-TV
Storm chasing and more at:
Ceaseless Wind

Ana and Bill

2009-08-17T15:10:00.006-05:00

Tropical depression "Ana" has an uphill battle for strengthening over the next few days.

First, the system is weak and barely recognized as a closed-off low at the surface. Any organization Ana might try to gain would be wiped out by interactions with the mountains of the Dominican Republic, Haiti and Cuba. NOTE: NHC is downgraded this system to a trough a low pressure as of late this afternoon.

It is also in dry air in the middle levels of the atmosphere which makes sustained thunderstorm development very difficult.

Latest computer model guidance do have what's left of Ana emerging into the Gulf of Mexico late this week. It is at least plausible that this could reform into a stronger tropical system at this time.

Bill on the other hand is forecast to strengthen into a major hurricane over the next few days. But it really appears has if this storm will start its curve out over the Atlantic before it has a shot at the eastern U.S. The island of Bermuda will have to what Bill this weekend.

Note the the upper level winds later this week would be out of the northwest over the Ozarks so there is virtually no chance of any of these tropical systems affecting us with their rainfall.

Ted Keller
Senior Meteorologist
KOLR/KSFX-TV
Storm chasing and more at:
Ceaseless Wind

Gust Front

2009-08-17T13:17:00.003-05:00

Scary sky! The dark leading edge of a thunderstorm line is moving through the metro area. Expect wind gusts to 50 or 60 mph with some of the embedded stronger storms.

Ted Keller
Senior Meteorologist
KOLR/KSFX-TV
Storm chasing and more at:
Ceaseless Wind

Line of Storms 8/17/09

2009-08-17T12:34:00.003-05:00

A line of storms will be moving through the area this afternoon. Expect some damaging winds with these storms. The line will be in western Greene County by 1:05 and.in central Springfield by 1:35.

Ted Keller
Senior Meteorologist
KOLR/KSFX-TV
Storm chasing and more at:
Ceaseless Wind

SEVERE STORMS AND CLAUDETTE

2009-08-16T15:19:00.003-05:00

A front drops south on Monday and triggers strong to severe storms to develop. Northern Arkansas will be spared from this activity until Tuesday, when the front is expected to stall out across southern Missouri. The main threats from the strongest of storms is hail and damaging winds. Locally heavy rainfall could lead to flash flooding.

The front will continue to sag south of the Ozarks and link up with tropical storm Claudette which should be a depression by the time it tracks across the Mississippi Valley. The next system to impact the Ozarks after this front is another cold front that will be arriving on Thursday.

3 TROPICAL STORMS FORMED IN THE PAST 2 DAYS

2009-08-16T12:07:00.009-05:00

TROPICAL STORM ANA

Ana is forecast to weaken as it tracks across the Dominican Republic and Cuba over the next few days. It will emerge into the Gulf by Friday and will be a tropical depression at that time.

TROPICAL STORM BILL

Bill is a strong tropical storm and will soon become a major hurricane as it tracks northwestward across the Atlantic. Great uncertainty exists as to whether Bill will track towards the SE US or curve out to sea. It all depends on the strength of an approaching trough.

TROPICAL STORM CLAUDETTE

TD #4 just strengthened into a tropical storm and is forecast to track across the panhandle of Florida and towards SE Missouri. As of now, it appears as though a cold front moving across the Ozarks will keep the tropical circulation south of us.

These forecasts are from the National Hurricane Center and are susceptible to change. Computer models are showing different tracks with all of these tropical systems. There are many variables and a ton of uncertainty. Keep checking in for new updates!

Mid-August Weather Pattern

2009-08-15T16:47:00.002-05:00

A normal pattern for mid-August is setting up. Small dips and ridges will be common with the jetstream, though high amplitude troughs and ridges are not expected. Every few days a dip in the jetstream will track across the upper Midwest and send a front in our direction. Seasonal temperatures are also on tap with highs in the upper 80s and lows in the upper 60s to around 70. We'll have to keep an eye on the tropics because if a system were to track into the Gulf, the Bermuda high may steer it northward. Inland flooding is always a concern when a tropical system makes landfall. Remember Ike and Gustav from last year?

TROPICS UPDATE

2009-08-15T16:35:00.006-05:00

The tropics are heating up and we have two named storms in the Atlantic basin. Both Ana and Bill are tropical storms with maximum sustained winds of 40 mph. Both are moving westerly at 16 to 17 mph. Ana is forecast to maintain a more westerly track and Bill a WNW track. This subtle difference is HUGE because Ana is forecast to track over more land than Bill which means Ana will be weaker. Bill is forecast to track a little bit further northward and become a hurricane by Wednesday. The Bermuda high is directing the storms due to the clockwise flow around the system. The U.S. (Florida) may be impacted by Ana as soon as Thursday, however, Ana may only be a tropical storm at the time. A lot can change between now and then and both of these systems will need to be watched closely.

Our First Named Atlantic Storm?

2009-08-14T10:33:00.003-05:00

This week in the eastern Atlantic, we’ve watched as the lead disturbance, formally TD#2, weakened while a new wave coming off the coast of Africa becomes better organized. This trend continues this morning. While the lead system still has a chance at organization, the one bringing up the rear seems to be one to watch.

In fact, the GFS model (only one of many to watch) continues to bring this into the Gulf as a vigorous hurricane by the weekend of the 22/23. Again, the devil is in the details and while the exactness of computer models cannot be trusted, it has been fairly consistent in maintaining this as a viable storm. Other models hold it together but curve in out over the Atlantic. This is the time of August favored for the development of waves coming off of the coast of Africa.

If this forms into a storm, the likely name would be the first on the list for 2009, "Ana". Next on the list is "Bob".

Ted Keller
Senior Meteorologist
KOLR/KSFX-TV
Storm chasing and more at:
Ceaseless Wind

Perseid Meteor Shower

2009-08-12T16:21:00.003-05:00

The Perseid Meteor shower is in full swing. Sky conditions should be great as they were last night. The moon rises at about a quarter past 11 pm tonight which might interfer slightly with viewing let's say from midnight on.

Meteor showers are the result of the earth passing through bits of debris left in a comet path. The Perseids appear every August as the earth crosses the path of comet Swift-Tuttle.

More information can be found here.

Ted Keller
Senior Meteorologist
KOLR/KSFX-TV
Storm chasing and more at:
Ceaseless Wind

Summer 2009

2009-08-11T16:47:00.002-05:00

We have had an interesting summer. It has leaned to the cool and wet side to be sure. Today is the 41st day of below normal readings since June 1st. There have only been 18 ninety-degree days, 10 of those were in June!

July was the 7th coolest on record in Springfield while other locations east of the city ranked much cooler if not coolest.

The rest of this week should stay below normal.

Ted Keller
Senior Meteorologist
KOLR/KSFX-TV
Storm chasing and more at:
Ceaseless Wind

Tropical Depression #2

2009-08-11T16:43:00.002-05:00

The Atlantic basin is looking more active now in terms of possible tropical developments.

There are a few distrurbances over and east of the Leeward Islands but a tropical depression did form overnight west of the Cape Verde Islands. This system is about ten days from any potential interaction with the U.S.

Cape Verde storms are very common this time of year as waves come off of the African Coast traveling westward.

Ted Keller
Senior Meteorologist
KOLR/KSFX-TV
Storm chasing and more at:
Ceaseless Wind

6-10 Day Forecast

2009-08-10T17:52:00.002-05:00

The period Sunday through Thursday of next week appears to be close to normal for temperature and rainfall in the Ozarks. An upper level low pressure area looks like it will establish itself over the western U.S., spreading cooler-than-normal air in the Great Plains. The Ozarks is on the extreme eastern end of this region. Rainfall will be maximized on the eastern side of the flow around the western low pressure system.

View all Climate Prediction Center extended forecasts.

Ted Keller
Senior Meteorologist
KOLR/KSFX-TV
Storm chasing and more at:
Ceaseless Wind

Storm Update 4:30 pm 8/10/09

2009-08-10T16:28:00.002-05:00

The line of storms has fragmented a bit since earlier this afternoon and does not at this time represent a traditional bowing segment of storms with its accompanying widespread wind damage. However, it will still have some severe winds in connection with some of the stronger storms. Of larger concern is the additional rainfall that areas north of Springfield are now receiving and that the metro area will get beginning at about 5:15 and lasting through 6:45. Greene County and some of the surrounding area is presently under a flash flood warning.

Ted Keller
Senior Meteorologist
KOLR/KSFX-TV
Storm chasing and more at:
Ceaseless Wind

Severe Update August 10th 2:35 pm

2009-08-10T14:35:00.003-05:00

An active bow echo which has caused wind damage in Kansas will cross into the northern portion of the viewing area this afternoon and early evening. A severe thunderstorm watch was issued for areas north of Springfield as a result of this advancing line. Folks north of a line from Lamar to Salem, MO need to be on the lookout for damaging wind as this line advances at about 40 mph.

This will affect the Truman Lake area starting at 3:30 and the Lake of the Ozarks starting at about 4:30 pm.

You can watch this line advance using interactive radar on Ozarksfirst.com

Ted Keller
Senior Meteorologist
KOLR/KSFX-TV
Storm chasing and more at:
Ceaseless Wind

Hurricanes and El Nino

2009-08-06T15:13:00.001-05:00

A developing El Nino pattern has caused forecasters at the Climate Prediction Center and National Hurricane Center to pull back a bit on the number of named storms forecast in the Atlantic basin this season.

El Nino is warming of the equatorial waters of the Pacific to much above normal conditions. It usually starts in the eastern Pacific as the NOAA animation above shows. The warming of the waters helps to generate thunderstorms which in turn transport heat into the upper atmosphere. This strengthens the jet stream over the Atlantic equatorial regions. Strong jet stream winds, or more precisely the shear they produce, tear apart developing tropical systems. It’s ironic that powerful storms like Katrina actually require benign conditions in which to first start developing!

A complete write-up on this topic from NOAA can be found here.

Ted Keller
Senior Meteorologist
KOLR/KSFX-TV
Storm chasing and more at:
Ceaseless Wind

Hot Weekend

2009-08-05T17:15:00.002-05:00

This weekend will see that hottest weather since our heat wave back in late June. Middle nineties will be common along with high humidity. This will mean the Heat Index will be at or over 100 during this period. The pattern breaks ever so slightly early next week as another weak front tries to drop through the Ozarks.

Ted Keller
Senior Meteorologist
KOLR/KSFX-TV
Storm chasing and more at:
Ceaseless Wind

Hurricane Stats

2009-08-05T16:43:00.008-05:00

There has been some question about how many tropical storms and hurricanes should have shown up by now over the Atlantic Basin. It should be pointed out that in recent years, the season has been starting a tad early. The stats show August shows a rapid increase in the number of storms. The real season for hurricanes kicks in in late August and peaks around September 10th.

August has seen some powerful storms including Andrew, Camille and Katrina.

Ted Keller
Senior Meteorologist
KOLR/KSFX-TV
Storm chasing and more at:
Ceaseless Wind

Storm Update 10 pm 8/4/09

2009-08-04T22:07:00.002-05:00

Storms are firing to the southeast of Springfield tonight. The radar shot is from shortly after 10 pm. These and other new storms will continue to move southeast overnight. The storms may build westward a bit more during this time. Some severe weather is possible with these storms along and south of a line from Forsyth to Eminence, MO.

Ted Keller
Senior Meteorologist
KOLR/KSFX-TV
Storm chasing and more at:
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Severe Storm Outlook Fore This Afternoon and Evening

2009-08-04T14:49:00.003-05:00

SPC Mesoscale Discussion;

"A PRE-FRONTAL LOWER/MID TROPOSPHERIC THERMAL RIDGE IS GRADUALLY
BECOMING SUPPRESSED SOUTHWARD ACROSS PARTS OF THE MID MISSISSIPPI/
LOWER OHIO VALLEY REGION...TO THE SOUTH OF THE COLD UPPER TROUGH
ACROSS CENTRAL CANADA AND THE UPPER GREAT LAKES REGION. AS THIS
OCCURS...DESTABILIZATION AND FORCING ALONG THIS FEATURE APPEARS
LIKELY TO BECOME THE FOCUS FOR INCREASING/INTENSIFYING CONVECTIVE
DEVELOPMENT FROM SOUTHERN MISSOURI INTO THE KENTUCKY/TENNESSEE
BORDER AREA...WHERE MERGING/CONSOLIDATING STORMS WILL CONTRIBUTE TO
ONE EXPANDING STORM CLUSTER IN THE PRESENCE OF MODERATE TO STRONG
POTENTIAL INSTABILITY. FORCING ASSOCIATED WITH WESTERN PORTION OF
LOW AMPLITUDE TROUGH SHIFTING WITHIN BROADER SCALE CYCLONIC FLOW
ACROSS THE REGION MAY SUPPORT ANOTHER GROWING STORM CLUSTER ACROSS
SOUTHEAST MISSOURI INTO WESTERN KENTUCKY. AS THIS OCCURS...AND
ASSOCIATED SURFACE COLD POOLS DEVELOP/STRENGTHEN MOMENTUM/SHEAR
ASSOCIATED WITH A 30-50 KT WESTERLY 500 MB SPEED MAXIMUM WILL
PROBABLY EVENTUALLY CONTRIBUTE TO INCREASING DAMAGING WIND POTENTIAL
BY EARLY EVENING. UNTIL THIS OCCURS...THE RISK FOR FREQUENT CLOUD
TO GROUND LIGHTNING AND LARGE HAIL WILL EXIST...ALONG WITH A GRADUAL
INCREASE IN POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAINFALL AS STORMS BEGIN TO TRAIN.""

Ted Keller
Senior Meteorologist
KOLR/KSFX-TV
Storm chasing and more at:
Ceaseless Wind

Storm Update 2:30 pm 8/4/09

2009-08-04T14:30:00.005-05:00

All calculations based on radar at 2:30 pm.

A line of strong to severe thunderstorms will be descending SE through Dade, Polk and Dallas county over the next hour. The line will be in northern Greene County at about 3:30 and in the Springfield city between 3:30 and 4:00 pm. Watch out for damaging wind and hail with some of these storms.

Ted Keller
Senior Meteorologist
KOLR/KSFX-TV
Storm chasing and more at:
Ceaseless Wind

2009-08-04T11:53:00.003-05:00

The severe weather outlook for today was updated slightly to include more of the Ozarks farther south. Outflows from rain and storms to the north of the viewing area earlier today may be the focus for thunderstorm development later this afternoon. The primary threat should be some locally damaging winds and small hail.

Ted Keller
Senior Meteorologist
KOLR/KSFX-TV
Storm chasing and more at:
Ceaseless Wind

ACTIVE STORM TRACK THIS WEEK

2009-08-03T04:39:00.004-05:00

Thunderstorms can't be ruled out on a daily and nightly basis through Thursday of this week. Northwesterly winds aloft will have distrubances embedded within the flow that will track from the High Plains southeastward and across parts of Missouri. The greatest threat for storms this week will be where the slight risk sets up. Damaging winds in excess of 60 mph, large hail and heavy rainfall are the main threats. The problem with the disturbances that track close to the Ozarks is that they lay out boundaries that can cause other storms to develop, which the models don't pick up on. Night time complexes that track close or across our area this week will have a big impact on temperatures. For now, anticipate highs in the lower 90s and lows in the lower 70s.

Summer Edging Back

2009-08-02T14:44:00.002-05:00

The pattern of steering winds we experienced last week with frequent cool fronts and cooler air has shifted to a more typical summer pattern favoring hot weather over the nation's mid-section and cool fronts staying more north closer to the jet stream winds. This will mean we have several opportunities to reach ninety or higher this week.

Fronts which "backdoor" the Ozarks, those that slide in from the north or even east, will have to watched for showers and thunderstorms which may tone down the building heat a tad on days they are observed.

Ted Keller
Senior Meteorologist
KOLR/KSFX-TV
Storm chasing and more at:
Ceaseless Wind

Severe Storms a Glancing Blow?

2009-08-02T14:39:00.003-05:00

The jet stream has shifted back north and east but is still flowing out of the northwest this week. This means that fronts will now frequent areas from Iowa to Illinois and by proximity northern and eastern Missouri.

The next test of this new flow pattern will be a frobt sliding through late Monday and Tuesday. Severe storms will be possible in the zone indicated on the map which would affect areas mostly north and east of Springfield say from Lake of the Ozarks southeastward to Shannon County.

Ted Keller
Senior Meteorologist
KOLR/KSFX-TV
Storm chasing and more at:
Ceaseless Wind

TOP 10 COOLEST JULY TEMPERATURE AVERAGES

2009-08-01T16:53:00.002-05:00

Summer Returning Next Week?

2009-07-30T17:15:00.001-05:00

The jet stream pattern which has provided us with cooler air and frequent rain shots looks as if it will back off a bit by next week. This week was spent watching this pattern, which had been focusing on the northeast and Great Lake states, gradually deepen and shift westward.

This resulted in a continuous run of cool weather and frequent visits by fronts providing rain and storm chances. The pattern will still be very much in effect through thr weekend with yet another front riding through the area late Saturday.

Now next week, an area of hot weather to our southwest will expand eastward into the plains and begin to heat us up. Nineties will likely return, possibily as early as Tuesday, and might last the week.

The rain pattern will establish itself to our north and east once again as the possibility of ”backdoor cool fronts” (those that back in from the east) returns to the region.

Ted Keller
Senior Meteorologist
KOLR/KSFX-TV
Storm chasing and more at:
Ceaseless Wind

Flood Potential

2009-07-30T16:14:00.002-05:00

Today's rain has been persistent and heavy in portions of northern Arkansas and south central Missouri were flash flood warnings are currently in effect.

This rain is slowly exiting to the east and will be gone by overnight. Expect additional 0.50 to 1.00" totals with locally heavier amounts.

Ted Keller
Senior Meteorologist
KOLR/KSFX-TV
Storm chasing and more at:
Ceaseless Wind

Rain This Weekend

2009-07-29T15:54:00.003-05:00

More wet weather along yet another cool front is expected to impact the area by Saturday afternoon. Expect showers and thunderstorm to develop and move through, moving clear of the area by Sunday morning. Rain totals look to be in the range of .25 to 1.00 inches.

It looks like a warmer and drier pattern of air will finally assert itself being on Monday.

Ted Keller
Senior Meteorologist
KOLR/KSFX-TV
Storm chasing and more at:
Ceaseless Wind

Heavy Rains South of Springfield

2009-07-29T15:47:00.002-05:00

A flash flood watch has been issued for areas of north-central Arkansas for tonight and early on Thursday.

An area of heavy rain and thunderstorms is forecast to slide ENE over this region during the period. Rainfall totals in central Arkansas could exceed 4" during this time. The portion of the watch within the viewing area is forecast to receive about 1-2" with locally heavier totals possible.

The rain will give us a break beginning later on Thursday, through Friday and perhaps until early Saturday. By Saturday afternoon, more storms slide in along yet another weak cool front.

Ted Keller
Senior Meteorologist
KOLR/KSFX-TV
Storm chasing and more at:
Ceaseless Wind

Rain Discussion for This Week

2009-07-27T14:28:00.004-05:00

A sagging jet stream along with abundant moisture and several cool fronts will lead to extended rainfall chances this week.

The five day rainfall forecast issued by the Hydrological Prediction Center (HPC) is quite inmpressive and concerning for folks living in a swath from northern Texas/southern Oklahoma through portions of Arkansas/Louisiana and on into Mississippi and Alabama. This area is forecast to receive anywhere from 4 to perhaps over 8 inches of rain this week!

The Ozarks sits in the 2-3" range which if spread five days is soggy but not a concern for widespread issues. This situation needs to be watched as the week unfolds.

The first salvo of rain is in connection with a cool front which begins to affect the area on Tuesday and early Wednesday. There appears to be a break in the organized rain on Wednesday. It remains to be seen of another band widespread rain will form later in the week.

Ted Keller
Senior Meteorologist
KOLR/KSFX-TV
Storm chasing and more at:
Ceaseless Wind

Rain Past & Future

2009-07-26T18:51:00.005-05:00

The Ozarks have experienced a normal to slightly above normal pattern of rain this summer, much of this thanks to last week's soaking which laid down the most rain in eastern Kansas and western Missouri. Going back thirty days, only the extreme eastern portion of the region around the Shannon County area is still slightly dry. Turning back three months, the area is still mostly on the dry side except for areas northwest of Springfield.

There are some expectations for rain this week. Recent trends have shifted the bullseye of maximum rainfall to the south of our area over the next five days. Totals in those areas would of course be too excessive; we would be doing well to receive what is on the forecast graphic from the HPC. The current thinking is that the maximum rainfall will be along the front which moved through our region on Saturday an will hang up to our south. Another front will be dropping in Tuesday which will provide us with our mid-week rain. We will avoid getting too much rain if the southern front provides the focus for rain as presently thought.

Ted Keller
Senior Meteorologist
KOLR/KSFX-TV
Storm chasing and more at:
Ceaseless Wind

TOP 10 COOLEST JULY POSSIBLE

2009-07-25T16:44:00.003-05:00

Temperatures so far this July have been below average.

NWS average temperature forecast for this July:

Springfield: 74.7 Joplin: 76.7 Rolla/Vichy: 74.2 West Plains: 74.5

The 10th coolest July on record in Springfield was 74.5 in 2004. It appears that temperatures will need to be cooler than forecast at Springfield to produce a top ten coolest July.

If the current forecast in the other cities is correct then a top ten spot is likely to be reached.

Both Rolla and West Plains are in line for a top five coolest July.

Current Top 5:

Rolla: 74.7 in 1960 West Plains: 74.8 in 2007

Jet Stream Changes Next Week

2009-07-24T15:46:00.004-05:00

The weather pattern I mentioned earlier this week still looks plausible for next week.

The jet stream flow aloft which dictates where storms will track and controls large scale temperature patterns will begin to favor wetter weather next week as well as a continuation of below normal temperatures.

What will happen is the overall jet will sag into the central U.S. while individual storms will flow through this and tap abundant moisture residing to the south.

Ted Keller
Senior Meteorologist
KOLR/KSFX-TV
Storm chasing and more at:
Ceaseless Wind

2009-07-23T17:37:00.003-05:00

Another summertime front will work its way through the area, keeping us below normal this weekend. A few scattered storms are likely to pop up especially on Saturday. High temperatures will be in the upper eighties. Thanks to another mid-week front, ninety-degree highs are larger going to avoid the area for the next seven days and proabable a few days beyond!

Ted Keller
Senior Meteorologist
KOLR/KSFX-TV
Storm chasing and more at:
Ceaseless Wind

Cool and Wet Next Week?

2009-07-22T11:49:00.003-05:00

The jet stream pattern which has provided us with slightly cooler summer and has chilled the northeastern U.S. looks as if it will be shifting more to the central U.S. next week. This means we will continue to see below normal temperatures and perhaps wetter conditions.

There is some evidence in the computer weather models that the shift will cause a front to stall somewhere in the central Great Plains during this period. This usually brings enhanced rainfall to areas along and north of the front. Since summer is a time of deeper moisture (high dew points) to the south of cool fronts, this can mean excessive rain is possible in this zone.

The 6-10 day outlooks issued by the Climate Prediction Center show the cooler temperature departure area in blue and the above average precipitation area in green. The current thinking is to set this front up more to our south be we in the Ozarks should be watching this for possible adjustment.

The whole stalled front episode will likely be followed by another cool shot which will send our lows into the fifties once again with highs only in the seventies.

Ted Keller
Senior Meteorologist
KOLR/KSFX-TV
Storm chasing and more at:
Ceaseless Wind

Rainfall Totals 7/21/2009

2009-07-21T12:55:00.003-05:00

Rainfall estimated rainfall is shown ending at about 12:30 pm on 7/21/2009. Isolated storms Monday afternoon helped to boost the overall totals in areas around and southeast of Springfield. Eastern Kansas certainly received the heaviest rainfall as they were subjected to both storms and longer lasting rain periods.

The rain is beginning to exit slowly to the east today. Expect totals in areas to the far southeast of Springfield to end up with broad 1-2" totals before the precipitation ends.

Ted Keller

Senior Meteorologist

KOLR/KSFX-TV

Storm chasing and more at:
Ceaseless Wind

Flash Flood Watch Tonight

2009-07-20T22:32:00.002-05:00

Flash flood watch posted for a portion of the Ozarks tonight.

Ted Keller

Senior Meteorologist

KOLR/KSFX-TV

Storm chasing and more at:
Ceaseless Wind

Velocity (Doppler) Example

2009-07-20T22:28:00.003-05:00

Pictured is a mesocyclone with a tight circulation as revealed by looking at velocity data. Doppler radar "sees" if detected particles carried by the wind has any compontent along the beam itself. Greens are used for particles moving toward the radar while reds are away.

Therefore, a "couplet" as shown here implies strong cyclonic (counterclockwise) circulation. The radar beam comes in from Wichita from the WSW in this image.

FYI, the green triangle is a a software-driven symbol indicating a possible tornado. This is derived by looking at the entire volume of the storm for rotation. The tightest, most persistent and deepest areas of spin will be tagged in this fashion. This software is used extensively "behind the scenes" at KOLR and KSFX.

Ted Keller

Senior Meteorologist

KOLR/KSFX-TV

Storm chasing and more at:
Ceaseless Wind

Unsummer 2004!

2009-07-20T15:28:00.008-05:00

The summer of 2004 was a cool one. Summer is officially defined as June, July and August and the temperatures for all three of those months were below normal that year:

June 2004 -1.5
July 2004 -4.0
August 2004 -5.1

Anytime an average temperature is plus/minus 4.0 or more from the normal it is significant.

In addition, we broke four record lows that summer, three of which were in the forties, very chilly!

Records set in 2004:

June 23rd, 49
July 27th, 52
August 13th, 47
August 15th, 49

Heavy Rainfall Possible

2009-07-20T09:40:00.009-05:00

The Ozarks finds itself in a flow of winds out of the northwest with imbedded weather systems producing areas of showers and storms. The map above is the Monday-Tuesday forecast of rainfall accumulation forecast by the HPC.

Flash flooding could occur locally but the area slated for the heavy rain is experiencing some of the driest weather over the past 30 days according to the Missouri Climate Center.

The rain should slide in this evening and overnight tonight and last through the first half of Tuesday. Temperatures will remain cool for the season through mid-week.

RECORDS BROKEN OR TIED AND MORE ARE POSSIBLE

2009-07-19T17:31:00.004-05:00

Morning lows were broken or tied!
West Plains and Rolla/Vichy stand another chance of breaking a record low tonight.

HEAVY RAINFALL POTENTIAL ON TUESDAY

2009-07-19T17:25:00.002-05:00

The image above shows the predicted amount of rain that could fall between Monday and Tuesday evening. 1-2" of rain is possible across SW Missouri, SE Kansas, NE Oklahoma and NW Arkansas. The least amount of rain is forecast to fall across the eastern half of the Ozarks. If the track of the system shifts further eastward then the heavier amounts will as well.

RECORD LOWS

2009-07-18T16:14:00.004-05:00

Here is a chart of the record lows and the forecast lows for tonight/Sunday morning. Most places stand a good chance of breaking the old record low by a degree or two. Clouds and higher dewpoint readings would be the only factors that could stand in the way of this happening. Clouds act like a blanket and keep heat in at night. The air temperature can never drop below the dewpoint temperature.

The normal high for this time of year is 90 degrees and highs in the lower 80s are likely on Sunday.

EARLY IN THE WEEK

2009-07-18T16:08:00.002-05:00

Our next system will be brewing to our west on Monday. The question is which track will the system take??? Models differ "big time" right now. One model shows the rain only grazing the western half of the Ozarks on Tuesday while the other shows a good chance for rain and storms everywhere. For now, I'm leaning towards the drier forecast. Keep checking in for further updates!

Mid-Summer Cool Snap!

2009-07-17T14:19:00.003-05:00

A high pressure system from Canada will send our overnight lows this weekend to record-breaking territory. The forecast for Saturday morning is 54 and the record is 53. Sunday morning is being pegged at 53 and the record is presently 57.

Meanwhile, daytime highs will barely get to 80 both weekend days. Dew points will be in the fifties which is very dry and comfortable air for summer. Enjoy!

Cool Weekend

2009-07-15T15:01:00.002-05:00

A shift in the jet stream will allow cooler air to flow in from Canada this weekend along woth lower humidity. Lows will drop into the fifties both Saturday and Sunday morning while highs will stay in the lower and middle eighties. Record lows may be threaten on these two days especially Sunday morning. Here's a list of the records:

Saturday the 18th: 53 in 1984
Sunday the 19th: 57 in 1984