SNOW OR NO SNOW?

The images above are two different computer models showing the precipitation output for tomorrow evening. They clearly differ and mean snow vs no snow for the Ozarks. If the top model is correct then accumulating snow is possible, mainly on grassy surfaces. Most places will see little or no accumulation, but if a heavy band sets up then a couple inches is possible.

Here's a list of the factors limiting snowfall across the Ozarks:

1. The track and speed of the low

2. Dry air in place

3. Timing of maximum lift and cold air

4. Air and ground temperature

The image on top aka NAM model is showing the low tracking much closer to the Ozarks than the image on bottom aka GFS model.

Overall there's a chance for rain changing over to snow. The chance for light accumulation is greatest to the southeast of Springfield. Rain chances will increase after 12pm and a change over is possible during the late afternoon and evening hours from northwest to southeast before the precipitation exits east.

Damp and Chilly. Snow?

Well, the chances for our rain showers mixing with snow are about as good as they were. The coldest air now is in extreme southwest Missouri and is not likely to warm much at all this afternoon. The final volley of showers is wrapping around this long-discussed upper level low along an area of converging air.

For snow die-hards, it is still possible in the early evening where the showers wrapping in from the north meet up with the chilliest air. Or at the core of the heavier rain showers. Later tonight and toward morning east of Springfield is another possibility. Elevation will help. NONE of this will amount to more than an inch and only then in grassy areas.

Don't worry, we'll likely have a shot at a real snow this winter. How's that for a forecast! I'm also officially predicting some warmer temperatures this summer...


Ted Keller
Senior Meteorologist
KOLR/KSFX-TV
Storm chasing and more at:
Ceaseless Wind

Rain Chances Late in the Weekend

The models run at a shorter range are now picking up on some pretty good rain late Sunday and Monday. The longer range models have been hinting at this all week too, although they have been way up in the 3" plus range.

There has also been intermittent talk of snow showers early next week. There is a cold core of air aloft in the wake of this rain event which is close to supporting snow in theory. This situation looks interesting but the temperatures at the ground will likely end up too warm to support snow. There is a chance it could mix with lighter showers expected near the core of cold air.

Ted Keller
Senior Meteorologist
KOLR/KSFX-TV
Storm chasing and more at:
Ceaseless Wind

Project Vortex 2 Year 1 Summary

This is a summary of what project Vortex 2 accomplished during their first year of operation. It was a very slow severe weather season in 2009, at least within the project’s time and space domain.

The Missouri State University chase class converged with the Vortex 2 armada in Sterling, CO on the evening of Thursday June 4th, the day before they (and Vortex 2!) caught their first tornado near LaGrange, WY, indicated by the red dot on the map.

Many of you on the trip were aware that Matt Gingery parted ways with us in Clinton, MO while on the way home Sunday to go chase in northwest Missouri! On this day, one storm in particular crossed into extreme northwest Missouri. It was well-sampled by Vortex 2 but non-tornadic during the sampling. I believe Matt blogged about this chase on this site. If not, I’m sure he can chime in!

I’ll be curious to see if data collected from that storm produces any insight as to why a tornado didn’t form.

More on Project Vortex 2.

The inserted slide was from a Powerpoint presentation with the following authors listed:

Howie Bluestein (University of Oklahoma)
Don Burgess (CIMMS)
David Dowell (NCAR)
Paul Markowski (Penn State)
Erik Rasmussen (CIMMS)
Yvette Richardson (Penn State)
Lou Wicker (NSSL)
Josh Wurman (CSWR)

Ted Keller
Senior Meteorologist
KOLR/KSFX-TV
Storm chasing and more at:
Ceaseless Wind

Severe Weather Conference

I attended the College of DuPage Severe Weather Symposium held from November 5-7 in Downers Grove, IL.

Some background: the College of DuPage has the longest running, organized storm chase class which just passed its twentieth chase season. Other courses offered at the college provide beginning students of meteorology a “leg up” by providing valuable hands on experience. The program is headed up by professor Paul Sirvakta. Paul is a genuinely nice guy and great facilitator which is why the program is such a success.

Many of you may know that Missouri State University offered a similar (at least logistically) chase class this past June ‘09. It is safe to say that the framework, it not the actual seed for the idea, came from the College of DuPage program.

You can read more about this and other severe weather topics at the website listed below.


Ted Keller
Senior Meteorologist
KOLR/KSFX-TV
Storm chasing and more at:
Ceaseless Wind

Rain, Rain, Rain

Yesterday’s rain total for Springfield was logged at 1.72″ which is a record for that date, 10/29. This has pushed our October rain total to 9.97″ or 6.75″ above a normal October!

The heaviest rain areas occurred east and southeast of Springfield and included numerous 4″ plus totals and even a few over the 5″ mark.

The National Weather Service has a complete rainfall report here.

Ted Keller
Senior Meteorologist
KOLR/KSFX-TV
Storm chasing and more at:
Ceaseless Wind

Late Week Storm

The story of the week is the approach of a powerful storm in the upper atmosphere, scheduled to arrive in the Thursday/Friday time frame.

The system is expected to "occlude" which means the most unstable air should stay south of the majority of the Ozarks. This should have the affect of keeping widespread severe thunderstorms either out of our area or possible south of Springfield in extreme southern Missouri or northern Arkansas.

Rainfall seems to be exploding more to our east and southeast as per the HPC rainfall forecast. Computer model forecasts for Springfield specifically are all over, ranging from only around .25" to well over 1.00". It seems as if areas most likely to skew to inches of rain would be areas to the south and southeast of Springfield.

Ted Keller
Senior Meteorologist
KOLR/KSFX-TV
Storm chasing and more at:
Ceaseless Wind