All the right ingredients are forecast to come together on Thursday for strong to severe storms to develop from Texas to Oklahoma to the Ozarks. The environment is favorable for tornadoes in isolated cells that develop and perhaps within a broken squall line. Damaging wind gusts and hail will also be possible. The greatest threat for severe storms as of today is across northeastern Oklahoma. The timing of the event is during the afternoon and evening hours before weakening across the Ozarks during the overnight hours. The main threats across the Ozarks will be damaging straight line winds and hail to the size of quarters. Strong wind shear will create a marginal risk for an isolated tornado across far southwest Missouri.
The biggest concern from the slow moving frontal system is for heavy rainfall and flooding on Thursday and Thursday night. Overnight, scattered storms will be possible across the far northwestern corner of the Ozarks. Severe storms are not expected during that time frame. Heavy rainfall leading to flash flooding is expected on Thursday into early Friday. Widespread amounts of 3-5", with locally higher amounts are possible. A flash flood watch remains in effect from late tonight through Friday morning. This episode of heavy rainfall will result in significant flooding of small streams, creeks and rivers. REMEMBER TO NEVER TRY AND DRIVE ACROSS A FLOODED ROADWAY!
FLASH FLOODING KILLS MORE PEOPLE EACH YEAR THAN TORNADOES AND LIGHTNING!!
