Besides heavy rainfall, there is a threat for severe storms on Friday. Gulf moisture will interact with slow moving or stalling front, causing strong to severe storms to develop late in the day. Forcing will increase at night, as the low level jet kicks in. Large hail and perhaps gusty winds may accompany the storm clusters that evolve across Ozarks. The tornado threat will be greatest across SW Oklahoma and W. Texas during the afternoon hours, due to veering winds in that location. Southwesterly winds are expected locally which is not condusive for rotating thunderstorms.
There's the potential for 5" of rain to fall over the next 5 days.
Several rounds of heavy rain are expected through early next week. Flooding and flash flooding is going to be a big concern.
The Storm Prediction Center has upgraded a portion of the moderate risk area to a high risk. Long-tracked and violent tornadoes are possible across that area today. There is a moderate risk for severe storms from north central Texas to northeast Kansas. There is a slight risk for severe storms across several states including the central and western half of the Ozarks. Storms will be firing across the moderate risk area this afternoon and will need to be watched as they migrate closer to the Ozarks. Computer models continue to indicate the storm activity holding off from pushing into western MO until early Monday morning.
The cold front triggering the storm development makes a move on us on Monday. There is a slight risk for severe storms. Instability will be limited which means storms won't be as intense as they will be today. Some hail and isolated damaging wind gusts will be possible with the strongest storms that develop.
1-2" of rain, with areas receiving locally around 3" is possible on Monday. The heaviest rain is expected to fall along and to the southeast of I-44.
The precipitation forecast from this morning until Wednesday morning shows a large area receiving 2" of rain. Southern Missouri and Arkansas could receive 3-4" when all is said and done.
Persistent southerly flow off of the Gulf of Mexico has begun which will slowly bring up the humidity levels into this weekend and early next week. This coupled with a slowly-moving upper air pattern with embedded disturbances will lead to several rounds of rain.
There is a chance for severe storms on Sunday into Monday across the northwest and southwest portion of the viewing area, including Springfield. A frontal boundary sets up across Missouri and stretches southwestward back into central Oklahoma. Gulf moisture will increase ahead of it, which is one ingredient needed for severe storms.
The last time it reached 80 degrees in Springfield was on March 6. This will be the warmest air we've experienced yet this spring and the longest period with temperatures above 75 degrees.
Sky conditions should be good for viewing the meteor shower late tonight/tomorrow morning. Earth is entering a stream of debris from Comet Thatcher, the source of the annual Lyrid meteor shower. Forecasters expect the shower to peak before dawn on Wednesday. 10-20 meteors per hour are possible. If you don't see any meteors but happen to look to the east just before sunrise you will see the crescent Moon and Venus.
We end the weekend and start off the week with cooler than normal temperatures. While this is going on, a big warm up is taking place to our west. The warmer than normal air is expected to take over beginning on Wednesday. Gulf moisture is also going to be increasing by the end of the week, which will result in warmer overnight lows.
The upper level low near the four corners region will gradually approach the Ozarks from the west as we head into the weekend. It will cause Gulf moisture to increase out ahead of it along with shower and thunderstorm clusters. Rain chances are not expected to go up until Friday night and mainly across southwest Missouri. It may take until Saturday morning for rain chances to spread eastward across the rest of the Ozarks and Arkansas. 
A large storm in the upper atmosphere will eventually bring rain and thunderstorms back to the Ozarks, perhaps as early as Friday night and then on Saturday through Monday. This storm looks as if it will hang back most of the work week, allowing warmer temperatures to develop out ahead of it. This should translate to at least one seventy-degree day by Thursday, Friday or perhaps both days.
An opportunity for frost to form tonight exists for folks to the rest of Springfield. This is an area which is expected to having clearing skies first tonight which will allow temperatures to drop to near the level of frost.
As of 3pm on Sunday, an upper level low that is currently positioned across the panhandle of Texas is forecast to continue tracking east and at times northeastward across the state of Missouri. We'll experience showers and steady rains from this system and perhaps some thunder tonight.
The upper level system will spark strong to severe storms on Monday afternoon to the east and southeast of the Ozarks.
Thunderstorms remain in the forecast on Monday, mainly to the east of Springfield and Lebanon. These storms again are not expected to be severe.
Rain arrived early today and made an impact on southwest Missouri. The heaviest rain has pretty much exited the Ozarks as of 3pm.
Most areas will receive about .75" of rain with higher amounts exceeding 1" expected to the south.THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN SPRINGFIELD HAS ISSUED ARainfall amounts in SW MO could exceed 2"! Runoff from the excessive rainfall could lead to flash flooding. Don't attempt to cross flooded roadways!
* FLASH FLOOD WARNING FOR...
BARRY COUNTY IN SOUTHWEST MISSOURI...
MCDONALD COUNTY IN SOUTHWEST MISSOURI...
NEWTON COUNTY IN SOUTHWEST MISSOURI...
NWS storm survey confirms that a tornado was on the ground for about 3 minutes last night(8:20-23 pm), about 2 miles to the northwest of Nixa. The damage path was 1.64 miles long and 150 yards wide. The tornado crossed N. Gregg road, W. Tracker road and ended around highway 160. The tornado was rated an E-F0 with winds speeds estimated around 80 mph. Trees and fences are damaged and there is minor damage to more than a dozen homes.
An upper level system will bring heavy rain to the Ozarks on Easter, mainly during the afternoon and especially the evening hours. 1 to 1.5" of rain is possible at this time. We are not expecting severe weather with this system.
WATCH AND WARNING MAP AS OF 10:50PM
Temperatures will struggle to rise into the 40s on Monday. Cold temperatures combined with gusty winds will make it feel like it's in the teens and 20's. You'll need the winter coat, hopefully for the last time this spring!!!!
A hard freeze is expected across the area tonight as temperatures fall into the middle 20s and in wind sheltered areas into the lower 20s. This hard freeze will have a significant impact on sensitive outdoor vegetation and agricultural crops.
RED FLAG WARNING IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 8PM
This is the latest regarding the potential for severe weather tonight. The slight risk area has been reduced to include a small portion of northwest Missouri and that's it. Lack of moisture is limiting the development of widespread showers and storms.
Moisture and warmth is slowly creeping northward across Oklahoma and Kansas and will interact with a storm system approaching from the west this afternoon and through the overnight hours. Severe thunderstorms are going to be possible across the western half of the Ozarks. The main threat with any severe storm that develops will be large hail and damaging winds. The risk for tornadoes is mainly across northwest Missouri and NE Kansas. 
FREEZE WATCH: LATE SUNDAY NT - WEDNESDAY MORNING
