SPC Mesoscale Discussion;
"A PRE-FRONTAL LOWER/MID TROPOSPHERIC THERMAL RIDGE IS GRADUALLY
BECOMING SUPPRESSED SOUTHWARD ACROSS PARTS OF THE MID MISSISSIPPI/
LOWER OHIO VALLEY REGION...TO THE SOUTH OF THE COLD UPPER TROUGH
ACROSS CENTRAL CANADA AND THE UPPER GREAT LAKES REGION. AS THIS
OCCURS...DESTABILIZATION AND FORCING ALONG THIS FEATURE APPEARS
LIKELY TO BECOME THE FOCUS FOR INCREASING/INTENSIFYING CONVECTIVE
DEVELOPMENT FROM SOUTHERN MISSOURI INTO THE KENTUCKY/TENNESSEE
BORDER AREA...WHERE MERGING/CONSOLIDATING STORMS WILL CONTRIBUTE TO
ONE EXPANDING STORM CLUSTER IN THE PRESENCE OF MODERATE TO STRONG
POTENTIAL INSTABILITY. FORCING ASSOCIATED WITH WESTERN PORTION OF
LOW AMPLITUDE TROUGH SHIFTING WITHIN BROADER SCALE CYCLONIC FLOW
ACROSS THE REGION MAY SUPPORT ANOTHER GROWING STORM CLUSTER ACROSS
SOUTHEAST MISSOURI INTO WESTERN KENTUCKY. AS THIS OCCURS...AND
ASSOCIATED SURFACE COLD POOLS DEVELOP/STRENGTHEN MOMENTUM/SHEAR
ASSOCIATED WITH A 30-50 KT WESTERLY 500 MB SPEED MAXIMUM WILL
PROBABLY EVENTUALLY CONTRIBUTE TO INCREASING DAMAGING WIND POTENTIAL
BY EARLY EVENING. UNTIL THIS OCCURS...THE RISK FOR FREQUENT CLOUD
TO GROUND LIGHTNING AND LARGE HAIL WILL EXIST...ALONG WITH A GRADUAL
INCREASE IN POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAINFALL AS STORMS BEGIN TO TRAIN.""
Ted Keller
Senior Meteorologist
KOLR/KSFX-TV
Storm chasing and more at:
Ceaseless Wind
