This week in the eastern Atlantic, we’ve watched as the lead disturbance, formally TD#2, weakened while a new wave coming off the coast of Africa becomes better organized. This trend continues this morning. While the lead system still has a chance at organization, the one bringing up the rear seems to be one to watch.
In fact, the GFS model (only one of many to watch) continues to bring this into the Gulf as a vigorous hurricane by the weekend of the 22/23. Again, the devil is in the details and while the exactness of computer models cannot be trusted, it has been fairly consistent in maintaining this as a viable storm. Other models hold it together but curve in out over the Atlantic. This is the time of August favored for the development of waves coming off of the coast of Africa.
If this forms into a storm, the likely name would be the first on the list for 2009, "Ana". Next on the list is "Bob".
Ted Keller
Senior Meteorologist
KOLR/KSFX-TV
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