Persistent southerly flow off of the Gulf of Mexico has begun which will slowly bring up the humidity levels into this weekend and early next week. This coupled with a slowly-moving upper air pattern with embedded disturbances will lead to several rounds of rain.In the Ozarks, the first batch will arrive Monday. The map above is a 48 hour rain total forecast which runs from 7 am Sunday to 7 am Tuesday. If this pans out, a large chunk of the Ozarks will see 2-3" totals with more in the extreme western and southwestern portion of Missouri.
Note that another round of rain may occur mid-week with the potential for even more rainfall.
Thanks Ted, I have a question.
ReplyDeleteWhen HPC puts that 5.82 bullseye on the map, is that the AVERAGE rainfall they anticipate for that area, or is it the MAXIMUM rainfall amount they anticipate?
Eric: The maximum average! There is always a chance for local convection to exceed this forecast. Note: added BUFKIT graph.
ReplyDeleteI've been playing around with the BUFKIT program and added up the 12z run. 10.011 inches for Springfield by 6pm Thursday. Severe parameters go through the roof before the end of it as well.
ReplyDeleteThis is scary.
i have a question what site do u all use to get all your data?? ya next week indeed looks intresting
ReplyDeleteI'd like to hear more about the severe part of this storm system. Some people don't like it and some think I'm crazy but I LIVE for severe weather.
ReplyDeleteJay,
ReplyDeleteHere are links for the BUFKIT software:
http://wdtb.noaa.gov/tools/BUFKIT/index.html
Here is where I get the data for it:
http://www.meteo.psu.edu/bufkit/CONUS_GFS_12.html