After our 7 (nearly 10) day run of ninties last week, it looks like the forecast will be void of nineties for perhaps the next seven days! Northerly winds on Tuesday should help to keep both the temperatures and humidity in check through Wednesday.

Then, a front sets up which will start generating more clouds and eventually thunderstorms starting Thursday and lasting through Saturday. This does mean that storms will threaten the fourth of July weekend!

A BREAK FROM THE HEAT

It is 6-12 degrees cooler this afternoon than compared to yesterday. The best part is that dew point temperatures continue to drop. Yesterday the dew points were in the 70's, which is oppressive and today they continue to drop into the 50s, which is comfortable.
The weather pattern this week is different than the weather patten we had last week. The ridge of high pressure will be across the west and we'll be under a northwest flow aloft. We'll have to keep an eye on disturbances tracking up and over the ridge and then riding southeastward across the Midwest this week. The first is forecast to impact the Ozarks on Thursday and the second is forecast to move in on Independence Day. The exact timing and location is still unknown at this time. As of today, it appears the disturbances will track southeastward and impact SW MO and NW AR on both days.

THE HEAT WAVE IS ABOUT TO COME TO AN END!!!

A heat advisory is in effect until 10pm. Afternoon highs will range from the middle and upper 90s. The heat index will range from 105 to 110 degrees. Being outside in this kind of heat can create a situation where heat related illnesses are possible. Drink plenty of fluids, stay inside where it's air conditioned and avoid the sun. The heat wave comes to an end tomorrow!!!

A cold front approaching from the northwest will trigger showers and storms to develop along and ahead of it this afternoon. Some of the storms could become severe and that's why the Storm Prediction Center has areas along and to the northwest of I-44 under a slight risk for severe storms. The primary threats are 60 mph winds, hail up to the size of quarters and heavy rainfall that could lead to flash flooding.

The chance for storms will increase to the northwest of I-44 anytime after dark. The greatest chance will be towards 1am from Nevada to Osage Beach. It may take until after 1am to 4am for the activity to reach counties along the interestate and points south. Rain chances will exit by Sunday morning.

Not everyone is guarenteed to receive rain but everyone will experience a drop in humidity and temperatures. It will go from feeling oppressive outside today to feeling comfortable by tomorrow. The comfy weather is expected to last through much of this week. We'll begin July with normal temperatures. The next chance for rain after tonight will be on Thursday and again on the 4th of July.

Severe Weather Shots

More scattered storms are possible today and like the previous two days, some of these storms will collapse and producing very localized damaging winds and rainfall totals exceeded two inches. The threat for a tornado is very low with this activity.


On Saturday, more storms are expected along a cool front. The front will be able to force the situation better and the upper level winds should be stronger so the storms have a better chance of becoming supercells on this day.

DANGEROUS HEAT & HUMIDITY

NEAR RECORD HEAT! FEELING LIKE THE RECORDS FOR SURE!
NORMAL HIGH: 86 NORMAL LOW: 64

Heat advisory is in effect until 10pm tonight.

SUMMER OFFICIALLY BEGINS ON SUNDAY

SUMMER BEGINS AT 12:45 AM CDT

The solstice is an astronomical event that takes place twice a year, when the tilt of the Earth's axis is most inclined toward or away from the Sun, causing the Sun's apparent position in the sky to reach its northernmost or southernmost extreme. The summer solstice marks the longest day of the year and the first day of summer. There are 24 hours of daylight north of the Arctic Circle and 24 hours of darkness south of the Artarctic Circle. We receive more direct rays of sun during the summer.

The earth spins around its axis and the axis is tilted somewhat off the plane of the earth's revolution around the Sun. The tilt of the axis is 23.5 degrees and because of this tilt we get to enjoy four seasons. When the axis tilts towards the Sun, as it does between now and September, it is summer in the northern hemisphere but winter in the southern hemisphere.

FATHER'S DAY FORECAST

Afternoon pop up showers and storms cannot be ruled out on Father's Day. More organized storms are forecast to develop across northeastern Missouri into Iowa and Illinois and some could be severe. The majority of Father's Day will be hot, humid and dry across the Ozarks. Afternoon fair weather clouds will likely develop. In the morning, temperatures will start off in the lower 70s and rise to the lower 90s during the afternoon hours. It will feel hotter than the actual air temperature due to high humidity sticking around. Happy Father's Day!

HEAT WAVE

An upper level ridge in place, meaning the jet stream has amplified northward across the Midwest, keeps us hot, humid and dry over the next 7 days. Highs in the 90s combined with dew points in the 60s and 70s will make it feel like it's between 95-102 degrees during the afternoon hours. Pulse thundestorms during hottest time of the day can't be ruled out this week, though I wouldn't count on rain from Mother Nature and would plan on watering your lawn and garden instead.

Severe Weather Update

A tornado watch has been posted for areas north, northeast and east of Springfield.

One lone storm is located in Gasconade County. It has sent out an outflow boundary westward into the watch area. Low level winds are rather weak in the area but the jet just above the ground will help to converge air and moisture into area to help maintain storm chances.

Tornadoes might be possible with any storms that form this evening and overnight with special preference for those traveling along a boundary.

Storm Potential This Evening

Storms currently firing in NE Kansas will continue to grow and develop this afternoon and evening. They will likely become a large group of storms or a storm complex this evening and with time will start dropping more to the southeast.

Areas to the northeast as outlined in the SPC Slight Risk zone should be on the lookout for the possibility of severe storms later this evening and overnight. These areas have also received the most rainfall from the past few thunderstorm rounds and should be prepared for additional flash flooding.

Flash Flood Watch

A flash flood watch is in effect for all of southwestern Missouri for tonight and early Tuesday.

Thunderstorms over Kansas are congealing into a large mass of heavy rain tonight which will travel along and slightly north of a warm front which stretches over the northern portion of our viewing area. 1-2" of rain could fall in this area with locally heavier totals possible.

Moderate Risk of Severe Expands East

Anyone living north and west of a line from Lamar to Osceola to Warsaw is under a higher threat of severe weather tonight as the Storm Prediction Center shifts the moderate risk region eastward.

Tornadic supercells have been traveling northeast through central Kansas this evening. They will move into the outlined region by about 11:30 tonight. Tornadoes are possible along with damaging winds and hail.

Great overhang on the Ozark County storm tonight. Still showing broad rotation.

Ozark County Storm

This storm has split and the right mover is slowing some signs of rotation. This storm is close to Gainesville.

Severe Weather Discussion 2

An westward-moving boundaty may enhance the severe potential of storms growing in Ozark County and others that develop near this boundary. The Weather Lab is monitoring carefully.

Severe Weather Discussion 1

Radar image at 12:36. Cells have been severe-warned with hail up to 1 1/4" reported. Any storms which follow a boundary such as the warm front or any outflow from morning storms will have to be watched for tornado potential.

Severe Thunderstorm Watch just posted for all of the Missouri portion of the KOLR/KSFX viewing area.

Severe weather update

12:30 PM POSITION OF WARM FRONT ACROSS THE OZARKS

RADAR IMAGE AS OF 12:10PM

TODAY'S SEVERE WEATHER OUTLOOK

TUESDAY'S SEVERE WEATHER OUTLOOK

DISCUSSION

Severe storms are developing along a warm front and are capable of producing quarter size hail. These storms are drifting eastward at about 15-25 mph. The storms will also be capable of producing damaging winds in excess of 60 mph and isolated tornadoes today. A watch will likely be issued any moment now. Severe storms are possible along the warm front today with additional storms developing towards the evening hours to our west and moving eastward during the overnight hours. The slight risk for severe storms on Tuesday has to do with this activity that will still be impacting the Ozarks during the early morning hours. Check back in for further updates as new information becomes available.

3 Day Storm Risk

SUNDAY OUTLOOK-DISCUSSION BELOW
MONDAY OUTLOOK-DISCUSSION BELOW

SEVERE STORM OUTLOOK FOR SUNDAY
There is a slight risk for severe storms today if enough heating and lift can occur. Boundaries left behind from morning storms may provide a focal point for afternoon and evening storm development. Early morning convection, however, did stabilize the atmosphere somewhat, which may result in a fairly dry day for us. If a severe storm were to develop it could produce winds in excess of 60 mph and quarter size hail. This evening we'll be watching showers and storms developing across northern Oklahoma and Kansas that might track into the Ozarks during the overnight hours. Some of the storms could be severe and produce very heavy rainfall.

SEVERE STORM OUTLOOK FOR MONDAY
A warm front moves in and transports warm and moist air northward. We could experience two rounds of showers and storms. One in the morning and one in the afternoon. The storms that develop during the afternoon hours along frontal boundary will have to be monitored closely. If enough clearing can occur behind the first round during the afternoon hours, then the chance for severe storms increases. All modes of severe weather will be possible with any severe storm that develops on Monday afternoon. The slight risk might be upgraded to a moderate risk.

SEVERE STORM OUTLOOK FOR TUESDAY
The last round of storms tracks in on Monday night and lingers into Tuesday morning. Same risks on Sunday, apply to this day. The greatest chance for early morning severe storms will be across the northern and northeastern half of the viewing area. The majority of the Ozarks may escape a rain filled day. The weather pattern on Wednesday should switch to a dry one because a trough is forecast to dig across the west which will amplify the ridge across the Midwest. What that means is that the storm track will shift northward and we head up under the ridge! Late in the week we'll be watching a front closely that may put an end to our 2 day stretch of dry weather.

Active Weather Pattern Returns!

Active weather takes over on Sunday and lasts into Tuesday. The tricky part of the forecast is knowing the evolution of storm complexes on a daily basis. As of Saturday night, storms are forecast to organize into a couple of complexes across the Plains. It appears as if one or two of these will impact the Ozarks over the next 24 hours. Disturbances tracking in combined with a surface front meandering around = several chances for storms. Some of the storms could be severe especially if the atmosphere can become unstable enough.

A risk of severe storms and flooding exist today in the Ozarks. The severe part seems a little less volitile tha yesterday's activity but the threat of large hail and damaging winds does exists along with a possible tornado near a front from eastern Kansas to central Missouri.

Perhaps a larger threat is the flash flood possibilities. Many areas received several inches of rain yesterday and additional rain in those areas or in new areas is cause for concern today and especially later tonight.

Severe Storm Threat Today

Watch out today, a 10% plus threat for tornadoes exists from Springfield westward. A stalled front is returning north as a warm front today. This boundary will be the focus for the most severe storms later this afternoon as they develop over Kansas and move eastward during the late afternoon and evening.

Severe Storm Outlook Through Tuesday

Isolated showers and storms will continue to impact the Ozarks through the afternoon hours. Occasional cloud to ground lightning is expected with the activity. This convection will have an impact on temperatures today and it will not be quite as warm as expected. The warmest locations will be across southern Missouri and northern Arkansas. Thunderstorms will develop later today across central and eastern Kansas and track east and northeastward. Northwestern counties in the Ozarks may be impacted by this activity after sunset. Wind gusts to 60 mph and hail up to the size of quarters will be possible.

A front pushes into the Ozarks tomorrow and there's a slight risk for severe storms.

The front stalls out either across or near the Ozarks and will provide a focal point for showers and storms to develop along. A few of the storms may be severe on Tuesday.

Hottest day over the next seven is SUNDAY

Heat and humidity surges northward ahead of our next approaching frontal boundary. Highs in the upper 80s will be common across the Ozarks, especially the areas that see the most sunshine. The only thing that may hold back temperatures is a bit is cloud cover from a complex of storms to our north.

DRIER WEATHER ON THURSDAY

High pressure brings cooler and drier weather to the Ozarks on Thursday. Dewpoints in the lower 50s and upper 40s take over for a day, which will make it feel comfortable outside. Northeasterly winds will also prevent temperatures from warming above the lower to middle 70s. Overall, it will be cool to start and pleasant during the afternoon hours. Let the refreshing air in, because it's going to be heating up again over the weekend!

A LOOK AHEAD AT THE WEEKEND

We warm up ahead of the next approaching storm system. Temperatures and dewpoints will both be increasing over the weekend which will result in afternoon instability. Isolated showers and storms can't be ruled out, however, a warm lid aloft should prevent widespread development. Most places should stay dry and heat up into the middle and upper 80s.

Severe storms & Flash flooding

Flash flood watch remains in effect from 7pm this evening through Wednesday evening.
A frontal boundary pushes into the Ozarks tonight.
Thunderstorms will continue to develop along the front and behind it.

Some of the storms initially may be severe. Hail and damaging wind gusts are the main threats.

Heavy showers and storms continue to impact the Ozarks on Wednesday.

Along and to the east of I-44 1-2" of rain is expected with locally higher amounts.