COLDEST AIR OF THE SEASON

Low pressure tracking across the Great Lakes region sends a cold front through tonight. It will be windy and warm ahead of the front and breezy and much colder behind the front. Highs will struggle early in the week to rise to 70 degrees and overnight lows in the 40s will be common. Record lows are not expected though temperatures will be running around 10 degrees below normal.

By the middle of the week, the cold air lifts out and seasonal air moves in ahead of the next approaching storm system. The good thing about this week is that we'll see dry weather lasting until Thursday.

A POTENT SYSTEM LATE IN THE WEEK

Computer models continue to indicate a strong storm system swinging southward across the Midwest on Thursday and causing strong to severe storms to develop. The timing has fluctuated over the past few days though the overall consensus has been Thursday evening all along. We'll continue to monitor the development of this system and pass along any new information as we receive it. The air mass following this system is nearly as cold as the one moving in early in the week.

SUMMER-LIKE SUNDAY

Temperatures rise above normal on Sunday, with highs in the lower to middle 80s. Normal highs are in the upper 70s this time of year. Southwest winds increase ahead of an approaching cold front tomorrow, which will advect the summer-like air mass northward. The cold front is set to pass through at night and bring fall readings to the Ozarks early in the week.

A BIG COOL DOWN IS COMING...

A dry cold front is forecast to pass through on Sunday night and bring the coldest air of the season so far. Highs will struggle to rise into the 70s on Monday. Lows in the lower 40s are a good possibility by Tuesday morning, which is the coldest air we've experienced since the middle of May. The below normal air mass will only linger for a couple of days before we warm back up again.

Heavy Rain Tonight

A slow moving front will continue to drop in some cases inches of rain on the Ozarks through tonight. The areas which will receive the most are portions of Greene, Lawrence, Barry, Jasper, Newton and McDonald Counties in Missouri and Benton and Washington Counties in northwest Arkansas where over 3" could fall locally.

Ted Keller
Senior Meteorologist
KOLR/KSFX-TV
Storm chasing and more at:
Ceaseless Wind

STRONG STORM SYSTEM EARLY IN THE WEEK

The jetstream digging southward across the Midwest sends a strong cold front our way. The right atmospheric conditions will come together causing severe storms to develop late on Monday. The primary threats are damaging winds, large hail and flooding rains. The western Ozarks stand the greatest chance of experiencing severe weather. Areas to the east of highway 65 will mainly deal with weaking storms and heavy rainfall late on Monday night and into Tuesday morning.

Here is a general rainfall forecast for Monday night through Tuesday night. Locally higher amounts will definitely be possible. The heaviest rain is forecast to fall across an area that has already seens several inches of rain. Flash flooding is a definite concern and a watch may be issued later in time from the National Weather Service.

SATURDAY'S BLOB OF RAIN

This is the radar image as of 12:35 pm on Saturday. A blob of rain with isolated storms is tracking northwestward at 30 mph. The heaviest rain is concentrated southeast of I-44. A flash flood warning is in effect until 5pm across southern Ozark, northern Marion and northern Baxter county. Radar estimates are greater than 2" across MO/AR border, which has fallen since 8 am. Be careful when driving today across the warned area because runoff from the heavy rainfall will cause flooding of small streams, creeks, county roads as well as farmland.

STRONG FRONT ARRIVES ON MONDAY-TUESDAY

A strong cold front approaches the Ozarks on Monday. The image above is the frontal position forecast for Monday morning.

There is a slight risk for severe storms on Monday afternoon and evening across western Missouri. The main risks are damaging winds and hail.

The front is expected to produce heavy rainfall which could lead to flash flooding. The image above shows the amount of rain forecast to fall from now until Tuesday morning. Heavy rain along the front will start impacting our western counties on Monday afternoon and evening and then slowly spread eastward with time. H.P.C. is forecasting 1-2" of rain with locally higher amounts.

Cooler Air on the Way.

The cool front responsible for the storms and rain Monday will move through. Another "cut-off" low in the upper atmosphere is expected to form midweek. This will keep us cool and fairly cloudy post-front. There is a chance for forty-degree lows with this latest shot of cool air.


Ted Keller
Senior Meteorologist
KOLR/KSFX-TV
Storm chasing and more at:
Ceaseless Wind

Severe Storms Monday?

There is a possibility of strong to severe storms on Monday through the central U.S. including the Ozarks.

A cool front is the culprit this time. The front is expected to pass through the Ozarks late Monday. Rainfall amounts could also exceed one inch in many areas late Monday and early Tuesday with this system.


Ted Keller
Senior Meteorologist
KOLR/KSFX-TV
Storm chasing and more at:
Ceaseless Wind

Cool Summer for Much of the U.S.

The Ozarks were not alone in having a cool summer. The states in blue all recorded below normal conditions and the numbers indicate the ranking of the state on its overall coolest summer list. Missouri ended up 12th and Arkansas was 23rd.

A persistent trough of low pressure aloft not only kept a constant supply of cool air flowing south from Canada but also kept clouds in the picture through much of the Great Lakes and New England.

We had ranked cool months in July and August in the Ozarks. A heat wave in late June and a brief burst of hot temperatures in early August are the only signs of summer we had in the region.

Complete NOAA report

Ted Keller
Senior Meteorologist
KOLR/KSFX-TV
Storm chasing and more at:
Ceaseless Wind

Low Pressure Backing Up

A weak and isolated low which was previously thought to be moving eastward by later in the week is now forecast to stall a bit more and probably track westward, passing south of the Ozarks, between now and Saturday.

The upshot of this is to keep rain chances going as long as this feature is close by. The 1-3 day rainfall forecast through Friday from the HPC is included, showing areas of western Arkansas forecast to pick up in excess of 4" as a result of this feature.

In the Ozarks, the rain totals ramp up quickly moving southward. A few inches of rain are conceivable in portions of Arkansas.

Bands of showers rotating around this feature will be capabile of producing locally heavy downpours in isolated sections of Missouri too.

It appears as if a weekend cool front will finally "kick" the rain system out of here at that time.


Ted Keller
Senior Meteorologist
KOLR/KSFX-TV
Storm chasing and more at:
Ceaseless Wind

Wichita Flooding Rains

A cluster of rain and storms dumped on Wichita early this morning and afternoon. Rainfall totals range from about 2″ to as much as 6″ in the northeastern portion of the city.

The included image is radar-estimated rainfall from the radar site at the airport in Wichita (the data “hole” in southwestern Wichita) which estimates as much as 5-6″ of rain fell in the northeastern part of the city shown in red. Ground measurements verify the radar estimate, a few storm reports:

1034 AM HEAVY RAIN 3 ENE DOWNTOWN WICHITA 37.70N 97.29W
09/08/2009 M4.41 INCH SEDGWICK KS MESONET

STORM TOTAL MEASURED SINCE MIDNIGHT…RAIN STILL
FALLING…REPORT COURTESY KSN WEATHERLAB SITE AT WICHITA
STATE UNIVERSITY

0820 AM HEAVY RAIN BEL AIRE 37.76N 97.27W
09/08/2009 M6.00 INCH SEDGWICK KS BROADCAST MEDIA

FROM THE START OF EVENT THROUGH 820 AM. RELAYED THROUGH
KWCH WEATHER.

0933 AM HEAVY RAIN ANDOVER 37.69N 97.14W
09/08/2009 M4.13 INCH BUTLER KS MESONET

RAIN STILL FALLING…REPORT COURTESY OF KSN WEATHERLAB
SITE AT ANDOVER MIDDLE SCHOOL


Ted Keller
Senior Meteorologist
KOLR/KSFX-TV
Storm chasing and more at:
Ceaseless Wind

Flash Flood Watch

A cluster of rain and some storms with locally heavy rain will visit portions of western Missouri this evening and tonight. Several inches of rain could fall locally along the highway 71 corridor tonight.


Ted Keller
Senior Meteorologist
KOLR/KSFX-TV
Storm chasing and more at:
Ceaseless Wind

Dense fog develops tonight

Dense fog is expected to develop tonight where the sky clears. The greatest chance for clearing will be along and to the west of highways 65. Fog will begin forming anytime after 10 pm and become thick by morning. If you are doing any late night or early morning traveling, be prepared to slow down and turn off your brights due to low visibility. Fog forms when the air temperature cools and equals the dew point temperature.

HOLIDAY WEEKEND & LABOR DAY FORECAST

An upper level low tracking across central Missouri this afternoon will continue to drift northeastward with time. As it departs, we'll see a spread in weather conditions across the Ozarks on Sunday afternoon. It will be drier and sunnier across western Missouri and Arkansas than compared to the eastern half. Just like this afternoon, showers and storms will pop up on Sunday afternoon but mainly to the east of I-44. Severe weather is not expected, through locally heavy rain is possible with the strongest of storms.

On Labor day the low will be further away than it will be on Sunday, which means less of a chance for showers and storms during the afternoon and evening hours. Slight chances remain possible from Rolla to West Plains to Mtn. Home and points eastward, otherwise it should be dry to enjoy the day off with friends and family. Temperatures will approach seasonal norms, with highs in the lower to middle 80s.

Tropical Storm Erika Forms

Tropical Storm Erika looks good on the visible satellite image with a core of organized thunderstorms and good “exhaust” on at the top of the storm. But like “Ana” and “Danny”, Erika has the thunderstorm area displaced to the east of a area of circulation. There is some shear affecting its development at present but plenty of warm water so the storm should strengthen a tad over the next few days.



Ted Keller
Senior Meteorologist
KOLR/KSFX-TV
Storm chasing and more at:
Ceaseless Wind

August 2009 Review

August started on a Saturday with a rain along front which cleared by later in the day. This was followed by a great Sunday. But heat and humidity swelled into the area on Monday the 3rd with dew points and temperatures jumping about 16-18 in a day!

We returned to the pattern of stalled fronts to the north and east firing clusters of storms affecting portions of the Ozarks. A front did manage to keep temperatures in check around the 5th/6th. The heat returned again on the weekend with middle 90's but with a great breeze!

Another front provided rain and cooler temperatures on Monday 10th. Heavy rains fell on this day including a record 2.58" at the SGF NWS. Widespread 2-3" totals occurred in portions Greene, Polk and St. Clair Counties with isolated 4" totals. A very quiet period followed for the rest of the week and into the weekend of the 15/16th. It was a great viewing for the Perseid Meteor shower! Lots of attention on what tropical disburbances in the eastern Atlantic will do including incipent "Bill" and a forgotten "Claudette". The weekend of the 15/16th contained a fair amount of afternoon cloudiness and some rain showers especially west and north of Springfield.

Another front visited on Monday the 17th with some heavy rain totals. But the main front of this week arrived early Thursday. Out ahead of it on Wednesday evening, a tornado watch was posted; a rarity for August. A bowing segment in southeasternKansass turned into a large squall line which blew through the Ozarks. Tornado warnings were hoisted for portions of Dade, Laclede, Newton, McDonald and Barry counties. An EF1 tornado occurred north of Roby in Texas County. Numerous reports of 50-60 mph winds and some light damage. An active storm traveled from Newton and McDonald and into Barry around the midnight hour with several reports of wall clouds and funnels.

A period of much below normal weather set into the area again the following the storms including a fantastic weekend the 22/23 with cool and dry air dominating. In fact, the rest of the month featured below normal temperatures.

The record for Springfield indicates only six ninety-degree high temperatures for August compared to eight days where the high was below eighty. The low dipped into the fifties or lower a total of seven times. The coolest air culmenated with one final high pressure system which produced a tied record low of 48 on the morning of the 31st.

Not counting duplicate averages, this August ranks right around the 10th coolest on record!


Ted Keller
Senior Meteorologist
KOLR/KSFX-TV
Storm chasing and more at:
Ceaseless Wind