The severe weather outlook for today was updated slightly to include more of the Ozarks farther south. Outflows from rain and storms to the north of the viewing area earlier today may be the focus for thunderstorm development later this afternoon. The primary threat should be some locally damaging winds and small hail.


Ted Keller
Senior Meteorologist
KOLR/KSFX-TV
Storm chasing and more at:
Ceaseless Wind

ACTIVE STORM TRACK THIS WEEK

Thunderstorms can't be ruled out on a daily and nightly basis through Thursday of this week. Northwesterly winds aloft will have distrubances embedded within the flow that will track from the High Plains southeastward and across parts of Missouri. The greatest threat for storms this week will be where the slight risk sets up. Damaging winds in excess of 60 mph, large hail and heavy rainfall are the main threats. The problem with the disturbances that track close to the Ozarks is that they lay out boundaries that can cause other storms to develop, which the models don't pick up on. Night time complexes that track close or across our area this week will have a big impact on temperatures. For now, anticipate highs in the lower 90s and lows in the lower 70s.

Summer Edging Back

The pattern of steering winds we experienced last week with frequent cool fronts and cooler air has shifted to a more typical summer pattern favoring hot weather over the nation's mid-section and cool fronts staying more north closer to the jet stream winds. This will mean we have several opportunities to reach ninety or higher this week.

Fronts which "backdoor" the Ozarks, those that slide in from the north or even east, will have to watched for showers and thunderstorms which may tone down the building heat a tad on days they are observed.



Ted Keller
Senior Meteorologist
KOLR/KSFX-TV
Storm chasing and more at:
Ceaseless Wind

Severe Storms a Glancing Blow?

The jet stream has shifted back north and east but is still flowing out of the northwest this week. This means that fronts will now frequent areas from Iowa to Illinois and by proximity northern and eastern Missouri.

The next test of this new flow pattern will be a frobt sliding through late Monday and Tuesday. Severe storms will be possible in the zone indicated on the map which would affect areas mostly north and east of Springfield say from Lake of the Ozarks southeastward to Shannon County.


Ted Keller
Senior Meteorologist
KOLR/KSFX-TV
Storm chasing and more at:
Ceaseless Wind

TOP 10 COOLEST JULY TEMPERATURE AVERAGES

Summer Returning Next Week?

The jet stream pattern which has provided us with cooler air and frequent rain shots looks as if it will back off a bit by next week. This week was spent watching this pattern, which had been focusing on the northeast and Great Lake states, gradually deepen and shift westward.

This resulted in a continuous run of cool weather and frequent visits by fronts providing rain and storm chances. The pattern will still be very much in effect through thr weekend with yet another front riding through the area late Saturday.

Now next week, an area of hot weather to our southwest will expand eastward into the plains and begin to heat us up. Nineties will likely return, possibily as early as Tuesday, and might last the week.

The rain pattern will establish itself to our north and east once again as the possibility of ”backdoor cool fronts” (those that back in from the east) returns to the region.



Ted Keller
Senior Meteorologist
KOLR/KSFX-TV
Storm chasing and more at:
Ceaseless Wind

Flood Potential

Today's rain has been persistent and heavy in portions of northern Arkansas and south central Missouri were flash flood warnings are currently in effect.

This rain is slowly exiting to the east and will be gone by overnight. Expect additional 0.50 to 1.00" totals with locally heavier amounts.

Ted Keller
Senior Meteorologist
KOLR/KSFX-TV
Storm chasing and more at:
Ceaseless Wind