Friday 5/8 Windstorm and Tornadoes

The Ozarks experienced a bowing line segment of particularly large scale and strength this morning. Such a storm starts as a squall line and then under the right conditions will "bow" forward, creating a comma head at its northern end.

We actually had smaller bowing segments which formed a larger one this morning. The high wind warning was issued for winds on the back side of the "comma" which were actually stronger than the leading thunderstorms!

Tornadoes are often found near the comma head and back along the tail of the comma in smaller bowing segments. We know of one tornado in Republic this morning, confirmed in Laclede and possible in Texas and Howell counties as well.

We will be sifting through this information all day and have reports during our midday news at 11 am and of course our later shows!

FYI: a derecho is a long-lasting bowing segment which started here and is going to keep heading east all aftenoon. More information here. Ours was a progressive derecho.

Clusters of Rain and Storms

It looks like two areas of heavy rain will track across the Ozarks between now and Saturday morning. Both look like mostly overnight and into the next morning events on both Thursday night and Friday. The exact track each of these rain and storm areas makes will spell a huge difference between a boatload of rain and relatively very little. The official HPC forecast is presented and the Weather Lab is going with this forecast.

Active Spring Weather Next Week

The average jet stream flow over the next seven days features a fast flow over a tight belt in the central U.S. Frequent disturbances moving through this flow will ensure regular rain chances but also shots at severe weather.

This type of pattern produces clusters of storms (MCS's - Mesoscale Convective Systems) which travel along and slightly south of the average jet stream flow. Missouri and Arkansas are in, or on the northern end of, this zone!

This link loops through the 500 mb (about 18,000) flow. The wind roughly flows along the lines from west to east:

http://www.hpc.ncep.noaa.gov/medr/day3-7diff_500ensloop.html

Beyond Wednesday, it looks as if a deeper storm may develop out west which would be of concern to us too if it develops.

SMILE (strict model interpretation laughable or eventful) is always in effect of course!

May 4, 2003 Tornado Outbreak Anniversary

For a detailed look at that day visit: www.crh.noaa.gov/sgf/Events/2003/may4/

Another review along with radar loops and videos can be found at http://ceaselesswind.com/tedstornado.html

More Rain This Week...

We'll catch a break from the rain on Monday and see the chance for rain and storms return on Tuesday.

Climate Data: Precipitation

1.76" above normal for the month of May

4.27" above normal for the year

UPDATE TO FLOOD POTENTIAL

The front stalled out further southward across Arkansas which means less rain for the Ozarks than previously thought. The flash flood watch was trimmed down this afternoon and may be trimmed even further by tonight. The heaviest rain is forecast to fall across Arkansas tonight. The rainfall forecast map is general and localized areas may receive more than what is predicted.

FLASH FLOODING CONCERNS

Periods of heavy rain is expected through the weekend which could lead to flash flooding. A cold front is forecast to stall out across southern Missouri by tomorrow night. Disturbances will interact with the front and cause rain and storms to develop. Any additional rain falling on saturated soils could easily result in flash flooding and river flooding.