Rain Discussion for This Week

A sagging jet stream along with abundant moisture and several cool fronts will lead to extended rainfall chances this week.

The five day rainfall forecast issued by the Hydrological Prediction Center (HPC) is quite inmpressive and concerning for folks living in a swath from northern Texas/southern Oklahoma through portions of Arkansas/Louisiana and on into Mississippi and Alabama. This area is forecast to receive anywhere from 4 to perhaps over 8 inches of rain this week!

The Ozarks sits in the 2-3" range which if spread five days is soggy but not a concern for widespread issues. This situation needs to be watched as the week unfolds.

The first salvo of rain is in connection with a cool front which begins to affect the area on Tuesday and early Wednesday. There appears to be a break in the organized rain on Wednesday. It remains to be seen of another band widespread rain will form later in the week.



Ted Keller
Senior Meteorologist
KOLR/KSFX-TV
Storm chasing and more at:
Ceaseless Wind

Rain Past & Future

The Ozarks have experienced a normal to slightly above normal pattern of rain this summer, much of this thanks to last week's soaking which laid down the most rain in eastern Kansas and western Missouri. Going back thirty days, only the extreme eastern portion of the region around the Shannon County area is still slightly dry. Turning back three months, the area is still mostly on the dry side except for areas northwest of Springfield.

There are some expectations for rain this week. Recent trends have shifted the bullseye of maximum rainfall to the south of our area over the next five days. Totals in those areas would of course be too excessive; we would be doing well to receive what is on the forecast graphic from the HPC. The current thinking is that the maximum rainfall will be along the front which moved through our region on Saturday an will hang up to our south. Another front will be dropping in Tuesday which will provide us with our mid-week rain. We will avoid getting too much rain if the southern front provides the focus for rain as presently thought.





Ted Keller
Senior Meteorologist
KOLR/KSFX-TV
Storm chasing and more at:
Ceaseless Wind

TOP 10 COOLEST JULY POSSIBLE

Temperatures so far this July have been below average.

NWS average temperature forecast for this July:

Springfield: 74.7 Joplin: 76.7 Rolla/Vichy: 74.2 West Plains: 74.5

The 10th coolest July on record in Springfield was 74.5 in 2004. It appears that temperatures will need to be cooler than forecast at Springfield to produce a top ten coolest July.

If the current forecast in the other cities is correct then a top ten spot is likely to be reached.

Both Rolla and West Plains are in line for a top five coolest July.

Current Top 5:

Rolla: 74.7 in 1960 West Plains: 74.8 in 2007

Jet Stream Changes Next Week

The weather pattern I mentioned earlier this week still looks plausible for next week.

The jet stream flow aloft which dictates where storms will track and controls large scale temperature patterns will begin to favor wetter weather next week as well as a continuation of below normal temperatures.

What will happen is the overall jet will sag into the central U.S. while individual storms will flow through this and tap abundant moisture residing to the south.


Ted Keller
Senior Meteorologist
KOLR/KSFX-TV
Storm chasing and more at:
Ceaseless Wind

Another summertime front will work its way through the area, keeping us below normal this weekend. A few scattered storms are likely to pop up especially on Saturday. High temperatures will be in the upper eighties. Thanks to another mid-week front, ninety-degree highs are larger going to avoid the area for the next seven days and proabable a few days beyond!

Ted Keller
Senior Meteorologist
KOLR/KSFX-TV
Storm chasing and more at:
Ceaseless Wind

Cool and Wet Next Week?

The jet stream pattern which has provided us with slightly cooler summer and has chilled the northeastern U.S. looks as if it will be shifting more to the central U.S. next week. This means we will continue to see below normal temperatures and perhaps wetter conditions.

There is some evidence in the computer weather models that the shift will cause a front to stall somewhere in the central Great Plains during this period. This usually brings enhanced rainfall to areas along and north of the front. Since summer is a time of deeper moisture (high dew points) to the south of cool fronts, this can mean excessive rain is possible in this zone.

The 6-10 day outlooks issued by the Climate Prediction Center show the cooler temperature departure area in blue and the above average precipitation area in green. The current thinking is to set this front up more to our south be we in the Ozarks should be watching this for possible adjustment.

The whole stalled front episode will likely be followed by another cool shot which will send our lows into the fifties once again with highs only in the seventies.

Ted Keller
Senior Meteorologist
KOLR/KSFX-TV
Storm chasing and more at:
Ceaseless Wind

Rainfall Totals 7/21/2009

Rainfall estimated rainfall is shown ending at about 12:30 pm on 7/21/2009. Isolated storms Monday afternoon helped to boost the overall totals in areas around and southeast of Springfield. Eastern Kansas certainly received the heaviest rainfall as they were subjected to both storms and longer lasting rain periods.

The rain is beginning to exit slowly to the east today. Expect totals in areas to the far southeast of Springfield to end up with broad 1-2" totals before the precipitation ends.

Ted Keller

Senior Meteorologist

KOLR/KSFX-TV

Storm chasing and more at:
Ceaseless Wind