2009 Atlantic Hurricane Season Forecast

Forecasters are predicting and normal hurricane season this year.

Last year, we got a taste of two tropical systems named Gustav and Ike. Inland tropical systems are most known for producing flooding rains and on occasion strong gusty winds.

Very Warm Monday

June begins above normal! Highs in the upper 80s will be common across the Ozarks on Monday. If you work outside; make sure to wear light weight and light colored clothing, take breaks in the shade and drink plenty of water. If you plan on going for a run, the best times to do it is before 10 am and after 5pm.

Storminess by midweek

The Storm Prediction Center posted a slight risk for severe storms on Tuesday. The slight risk area grazes the northwestern portion of the viewing area. Most of the storms that develop will avoid the Ozarks, but will need to be watched closely. Overall, there is about a 30% chance for thunderstorms from Nevada to Warsaw during Tuesday afternoon. Rain and storms become likely at night and spread southeastward across the Ozarks.

A disturbance/front tracks across the Ozarks on Wednesday. Scattered showers and storms are likely. Severe weather is NOT expected at this time. Make sure to check in for further updates early in the week.

UV-Index Forecast and Explanation

Accuweather computer models are predicting a UV-INDEX around 8 in the Ozarks for tomorrow afternoon. An index of 8 means a very high risk of harm from unprotected sun exposure. It's a good idea to wear sunscreen, a shirt, sunglasses, and a hat. Don't stay out in the sun for too long.

For more information visit this website

Watching storms to our north on Saturday

Showers and thunderstorms are blossoming across Illinois and could potentially form as far west as eastern Missouri. If that happens, we could see a bit more cloud cover develop up towards Lake of the Ozarks and Rolla. We'll watch the storms closely, but for now I am keeping the forecast dry!

The hottest air of the season moves in

An upper level ridge builds east and we heat up! Temperatures will easily rise into the middle and upper 80s beginning on Saturday and lasting until Tuesday. I'm not expecting record heat at this time.

Active weather will be close by early next week

A cold front approaches from the north on Tuesday causing showers and thunderstorms to develop along and ahead of it. A few of those storms may impact the northern and northwestern half of the viewing area. The best chance for storms is on Wednesday, when the front pushes through.

Very Slight Weak Tornado Threat

The Storm Prediction Center has put a small portion of the eastern Ozarks in a 2% category for isolated weak tornadoes this afternoon and early evening.

Bands of storms, especially those who have some sunshine form on either side of them, have the potential to become supercells, aided by a somewhat favorable low level wind in connection with the slow loving low now drifting northward in southwestern Missouri.


Areas north and east of an arc from Bolivar to Ava to Mtn Home, AR (a bit larger than the SPC area above) are in this minor threat area.

Memorial Day Forecast

A slow-poke low and loads of humidity will mean showers and storms will continue to fire at will rather early on Monday. The slow movement and abundent moisture will mean locally heacy downpours will be more likely across a larger portion of the Ozarks than in previous days.

Tornado Stats 2009

Tornadoes this year across the U.S. are running a bit behind the three-year running average. With the exception of April, all months are lower than the average.

Dry and warming up!

The jet stream remains across the northern tear of the U.S. this week, which is a pattern you typically see during the summer season. A pattern like this is a sign of warm and dry weather. Beginning on Wednesday, high temperatures should max out around 80 degrees.

Wet or Dry on Memorial Day Weekend?

Late in the week, high pressure will continue to do a good job of keeping Gulf moisture and storm chances away from the Ozarks. Over Memorial Day weekend, the high breaks down and storm chances start going up late on Sunday and are greatest on Memorial Day. Uncertainty with this forecast still exists. Overall, I'd plan your outdoor activities on Saturday!

Storm Discussion #2 5/15/09

Radar at 10:18 PM

A moderate gust front outflow will continue to push out ahead of the storms this evening with winds up to 40 or 50 mph.

Small hail will also be possible from some of the storm cells behind the outflow. Some storms coming out of Oklahoma may be severe in northwest Arkansas or perhaps extreme southern Missouri within the next few hours.

Storm Discussion #1 5/15/09

Radar at 7:24 this evening. A severe thuderstorm watch has been posted from roughly Springfield north this evening. Storms to the north are outflow dominated. Notice the thin line out ahead of the main cells. This suggests a bit of weakening and at radar time none of these storms are warned upon.

A cold front will start giving all of this a push later this evening and overnight. Storms might once again increase their severe potential when this happens. Tornadoes are not thought to be a large threat at this time but as always, bowing segments and intersections with old bounderies will have to be watched.

Severe Storms Update

The latest severe weather outlook for today (which runs until the overnight hours) has a new moderate risk for severe storms which covers areas to the far northwest of Springfield and a slight risk for severe storms dropping down to Springfield. The storms will initiate to the north and northwest out of our viewing area and then drop southward overnight.


The tornado threat is greatest from northeastern Kansas into the Kansas City metro area and then into northern Missouri (yikes, where that large tornado occurred up near Kirksville on Wednesday).

Folks living roughly along and north of a line from Nevada to Hermitage to Lake of the Ozarks should be on the lookout for threatening weather this evening and after dark. Tornadoes are a bit more likely now in this area.

Derecho Tornado and Wind Report

The latest (and perhaps final) count of tornadoes from last Friday's derecho is 18. This includes an EF 3 in Howell County and 6 EF 2's. The winds wrapping in behind the comma head produced a swath of 70-90 mph winds as well.

Here is the NWS SGF report page.

Storm Discussion #3

Storm front is developing more slowly but will still impact the area later this evening and overnight. A severe thunderstorm watcj is in effect for the northwestern portion of our viewing area. Storms in SE Kansas have been isolated but non-tornadic so far. Some of these storms will begin to affect the western tier of counties of Missouri by about 9 pm.

As the jet stream provides greater support later tonight, these storms are expected to fill in a bit more and drop southeastward over the area. The system will likely become a squall line with embedded bowing segments of wind damage. Large hail (baseball for a few?) will also occur in the stronger storms. An isolated tornado is still possible with this line of storms.

It will be begin to stretch out more east-west overnight and become a big rain maker with average of 1-2" totals and a bullseye of perhaps a bit more over northwestern Arkansas.

Storm Discussion #2

Multi-cellular thunderstorm complex continues to move northeast with hail up to half-dollars possible and gusty winds. Storm warning in effect for portions of Wright and Texas counties.

Mobile Weather Lab

Meteorologist Jill Gilardi will be taking the Mobile Weather Lab out today. Watch for her Skype reports on the new KOLR news at 5 and 6!

Live Chase Stream

Two of my chaser friends from Springfield, Jason Blum and David Toner, are in Illinois today and plan are streaming. Watch them at:

http://www.mogulus.com/tonerblum

Storm Discussion #1

Some storms are firing north and east of a "leftover low" of sorts; a spinning in the middle of the atmosphere created from storms in Oklahoma last night. These "MCV's" are often the trigger for storms the next day as they drift along.

The wind shear needed to keep supercells held together is still low this morning over the area allthough these MCV's have a way of producing small wind features which go undetected and may help overcome this to a certain extent.

Areas from Springfield northeast and later anywhere to the east should watch these storms as they are capable of hail and gusty winds.

MODERATE RISK FOR SEVERE STORMS TODAY!!!

MODERATE RISK FOR SEVERE STORMS

TORNADO POTENTIAL IS GREATEST ACROSS THE N & NE PART OF THE OZARKS.

HAIL IS THE BIGGEST THREAT AND COULD BE UP TO THE SIZE OF BASEBALLS!!!

DAMAGING STRAIGHT LINE WINDS IS THE OTHER MAIN THREAT.
WINDS COULD EXCEED 80 MPH.

NWS Weather briefing summary from 11am:

- Storms developing south of I-44 this AM and early PM could produce quarter size hail and wind gusts to 50 mph.

-A cap in place will limit development early this afternoon. The cap (lid on the atmosphere) will break when temperatures rise into the lower to middle 80s late this afternoon/evening.

- CAPE (convective available potential energy) will range from 3-4,000 j/kg. What that means is that updrafts will be very strong with storms that develop and updrafts that strong can cause hail to grow up to the size of baseballs. When an updraft is that strong, the downdraft is strong as well and can produce winds greater than 80 mph at the surface.

- The greatest threat for tornadoes is across the northern half of the viewing area. In a line from Nevada to Bolivar to Lebanon.

-Isolated storms are possible this afternoon though by the evening hours, as the cold front approaches, storms will become more numerous and increase in intensity. Storm motion will be northeasterly though the line of storms will be tracking eastward.

-Timing: 4-9pm: Pittsburg, KS to Pomme de Terre and points northwestward
6pm-12am: Areas along I-44
Late tnt: South of I-44

Advisories, Watches and Warnings

There is a wind advisory in effect until 10pm this evening. Winds could gust up to 50 mph and will be sustained in some locations from 20-35 mph. Use extra caution while driving, especially if you have a high profile vehicle.

There is a flash flood watch in effect from Wednesday afternoon through Thursday morning. A cold front moving in will eventually stall out along the Missouri and Arkansas border overnight on Wednesday. Thunderstorms developing along the boundary will train (move over the same area) which could easily lead to flash flooding.

CONFIRMED TORNADOES ON MAY 8TH

The National Weather Service survey damage reports continue to come in.

So far 17 tornadoes have been confirmed....

Click on the link below for information about the confirmed tornadoes:

Survey Damage Details

The derecho that went through on Friday produced an above normal amount of tornadoes. Bowing segments can produce tornadoes but are usually known more for widespread and destructive straight line winds. Dr. Greg Forbes who is the severe weather expert from The Weather Channel, says the records kept aren't good regarding derecho events. He mapped 18 from a bow echo in central Illinois from 1977. This fact just emphasizes how rare an event Friday was.

Happy Mother's Day

Reflectivity of the deadly storms tracking out of Kansas

Mother's day is also the anniversary of the deadly tornadoes that impacted southwest Missouri.

Click on this link for an in depth look back at this horrific day in 2008:
May 10, 2008 TORNADOES

Friday 5/8 Windstorm and Tornadoes

The Ozarks experienced a bowing line segment of particularly large scale and strength this morning. Such a storm starts as a squall line and then under the right conditions will "bow" forward, creating a comma head at its northern end.

We actually had smaller bowing segments which formed a larger one this morning. The high wind warning was issued for winds on the back side of the "comma" which were actually stronger than the leading thunderstorms!

Tornadoes are often found near the comma head and back along the tail of the comma in smaller bowing segments. We know of one tornado in Republic this morning, confirmed in Laclede and possible in Texas and Howell counties as well.

We will be sifting through this information all day and have reports during our midday news at 11 am and of course our later shows!

FYI: a derecho is a long-lasting bowing segment which started here and is going to keep heading east all aftenoon. More information here. Ours was a progressive derecho.

Clusters of Rain and Storms

It looks like two areas of heavy rain will track across the Ozarks between now and Saturday morning. Both look like mostly overnight and into the next morning events on both Thursday night and Friday. The exact track each of these rain and storm areas makes will spell a huge difference between a boatload of rain and relatively very little. The official HPC forecast is presented and the Weather Lab is going with this forecast.

Active Spring Weather Next Week

The average jet stream flow over the next seven days features a fast flow over a tight belt in the central U.S. Frequent disturbances moving through this flow will ensure regular rain chances but also shots at severe weather.

This type of pattern produces clusters of storms (MCS's - Mesoscale Convective Systems) which travel along and slightly south of the average jet stream flow. Missouri and Arkansas are in, or on the northern end of, this zone!

This link loops through the 500 mb (about 18,000) flow. The wind roughly flows along the lines from west to east:

http://www.hpc.ncep.noaa.gov/medr/day3-7diff_500ensloop.html

Beyond Wednesday, it looks as if a deeper storm may develop out west which would be of concern to us too if it develops.

SMILE (strict model interpretation laughable or eventful) is always in effect of course!

May 4, 2003 Tornado Outbreak Anniversary

For a detailed look at that day visit: www.crh.noaa.gov/sgf/Events/2003/may4/

Another review along with radar loops and videos can be found at http://ceaselesswind.com/tedstornado.html

More Rain This Week...

We'll catch a break from the rain on Monday and see the chance for rain and storms return on Tuesday.

Climate Data: Precipitation

1.76" above normal for the month of May

4.27" above normal for the year

UPDATE TO FLOOD POTENTIAL

The front stalled out further southward across Arkansas which means less rain for the Ozarks than previously thought. The flash flood watch was trimmed down this afternoon and may be trimmed even further by tonight. The heaviest rain is forecast to fall across Arkansas tonight. The rainfall forecast map is general and localized areas may receive more than what is predicted.