MODERATE RISK FOR SEVERE STORMS
TORNADO POTENTIAL IS GREATEST ACROSS THE N & NE PART OF THE OZARKS.
HAIL IS THE BIGGEST THREAT AND COULD BE UP TO THE SIZE OF BASEBALLS!!!
DAMAGING STRAIGHT LINE WINDS IS THE OTHER MAIN THREAT. WINDS COULD EXCEED 80 MPH.
NWS Weather briefing summary from 11am:
- Storms developing south of I-44 this AM and early PM could produce quarter size hail and wind gusts to 50 mph.
-A cap in place will limit development early this afternoon. The cap (lid on the atmosphere) will break when temperatures rise into the lower to middle 80s late this afternoon/evening.
- CAPE (convective available potential energy) will range from 3-4,000 j/kg. What that means is that updrafts will be very strong with storms that develop and updrafts that strong can cause hail to grow up to the size of baseballs. When an updraft is that strong, the downdraft is strong as well and can produce winds greater than 80 mph at the surface.
- The greatest threat for tornadoes is across the northern half of the viewing area. In a line from Nevada to Bolivar to Lebanon.
-Isolated storms are possible this afternoon though by the evening hours, as the cold front approaches, storms will become more numerous and increase in intensity. Storm motion will be northeasterly though the line of storms will be tracking eastward.
-Timing: 4-9pm: Pittsburg, KS to Pomme de Terre and points northwestward
6pm-12am: Areas along I-44
Late tnt: South of I-44
-A cap in place will limit development early this afternoon. The cap (lid on the atmosphere) will break when temperatures rise into the lower to middle 80s late this afternoon/evening.
- CAPE (convective available potential energy) will range from 3-4,000 j/kg. What that means is that updrafts will be very strong with storms that develop and updrafts that strong can cause hail to grow up to the size of baseballs. When an updraft is that strong, the downdraft is strong as well and can produce winds greater than 80 mph at the surface.
- The greatest threat for tornadoes is across the northern half of the viewing area. In a line from Nevada to Bolivar to Lebanon.
-Isolated storms are possible this afternoon though by the evening hours, as the cold front approaches, storms will become more numerous and increase in intensity. Storm motion will be northeasterly though the line of storms will be tracking eastward.
-Timing: 4-9pm: Pittsburg, KS to Pomme de Terre and points northwestward
6pm-12am: Areas along I-44
Late tnt: South of I-44
I wish I owned a roofing company. It's the only way I could ever feel good about living here.
ReplyDeleteJill, what's your latest rainfall prediction? Will heavy rain still be ongoing in Springfield on Thursday morning?
1-2" with locally higher amounts. Heaviest slides into AR by 12z (7am).
ReplyDelete