Approaching or breaking record lows tonight

Canadian high pressure sends the coolest air of the summer our way tonight and early tomorrow morning. It will be cold enough for an early frost across parts of the Great Lakes region. We will not get that cold, but cold enough to break a few records.

Enough moisture may be present that Springfield just misses getting down to record cold levels tonight. It will be a close call for records to be reached in Rolla and West Plains. Joplin stands the best chance of beating the old record low of 55 degrees. Record or not, it's going to be cold tonight and you definitely won't need air conditioning on! Open up your windows and save a little money. :)

Late week clouds & shower chances

A disturbance that's currently located across the Pacific northwest will slip southward and remain stagnant across the central Plains from Wednesday through Saturday. The Ozarks will experience a split in weather conditions from west to east. The best chance for rain and cloud cover will be from highway 65 and points westward and the driest and sunniest conditions will be across the eastern Ozarks. Temperatures are forecast to remain below normal through next weekend.

TIME TO TURN ON THE HEATER?

Canadian high pressure is building southward and will make it feel like fall over the next few days. Most places will experience lows in the 50s on Sunday morning. The further north/northeast you live, the cooler it will be.

The coldest air since June 5th, arrives on Monday morning. Many locations will likely break old record lows. You'll definitely want to turn off the air conditioner and perhaps turn on the heat. Sounds crazy, huh?

AUGUST 31st RECORD LOWS
Springfield: 48 1967

Joplin: 55 1987

West Plains: 50 1988

Rolla: 48 1967

Cool Snap, Again

The jet stream is digging southward over our heads this weekend, dragging the chilliest air this season down from Canada and helping developing tropical storm "Danny" to stay mostly at sea.

This pattern will give us lows in the fifties for the entire seven day forecast! The coolest point will be Monday when widespread forties are likely in the Ozarks. The record low for Springfield that morning is 48 and we will be quite close.

The weekend will stay much below normal. Highs will stay in the seventies; a pattern which will last through most, if not all, of next week.


Ted Keller
Senior Meteorologist
KOLR/KSFX-TV
Storm chasing and more at:
Ceaseless Wind

Forties Possible?

The chart pictured shows the temperature output from various computer models for the weekend and early next week. The GFS model is the only one which projects beyond Saturday as of today at least. The 12Z (7 a.m.) and 18Z (1 p.m.) refer to the run times of the model. The GFS is run four times a day.

The lines for two consecutive runs drop into the forties on Monday morning. One run makes it this chilly Tuesday morning as well.


Ted Keller
Senior Meteorologist
KOLR/KSFX-TV
Storm chasing and more at:
Ceaseless Wind

Next Cool Push

It is very possible that at least a portion of the Ozarks will experience forty-degree low temperatures on Monday morning. A strong cool front will drop in Saturday. This will produce yet another string of unseasonably cool days in the Ozarks, lasting into next week.

The most likely area for lows this cold would be northest of Springfield from around Lake of the Ozarks southeastward to Shannon County. The record low for Springfield Monday morning is 48.

Since this will occur on the last day of August, it will alter our average temperature for the month, possibly to a top ten ranking for coolest Augusts on record.


Ted Keller
Senior Meteorologist
KOLR/KSFX-TV
Storm chasing and more at:
Ceaseless Wind

Danny Forms

Tropical storm "Danny" formed quickly today. The fourth named storm of the Atlantic season as winds to 45 mph. The National Hurricane Center is forecasting Danny to become a hurricane sometime early on Saturday off the coast of North Carolina. This will be while the storm is making a turn more to the north. It looks like Danny will follow a more westerly track as compared to Bill. This means the storm will track closer to coastal areas of New England this weekend.


Ted Keller
Senior Meteorologist
KOLR/KSFX-TV
Storm chasing and more at:
Ceaseless Wind

Cool August

24 days into August, we've only recorded six high temperatures in the 90's with none expected through the close of the month. All but four days saw high temperatures below normal. Low temperatures have dropped into the fifties five times so far this month. As of the 23rd, our average temperature is about 75.4 degrees. The coldest August on record had an average temperature of 68.8 in 1915. The tenth coolest was 73.8 in 1904. Using the current temperature projections through the end of August, we would end up around 74.0 degrees.

All of this comes on the heels of a cool July; seventh coolest in Springfield and coolest ever for some areas east of the city.

With the arrival of another front on Friday, the average high will continue to drop this month. This cooler pattern of weather should last well into next week.


Ted Keller
Senior Meteorologist
KOLR/KSFX-TV
Storm chasing and more at:
Ceaseless Wind

Andrew Anniversary

On August 24th, 1992, Hurricane Andrew made a beeline for the southeastern shore of Florida.

Ted Keller
Senior Meteorologist
KOLR/KSFX-TV
Storm chasing and more at:
Ceaseless Wind

Our Delightful Weekend!

Wow, this weekend won't soon be forgotten! Plenty of sun, warm but not hot, very low humidity and even a breeze on Saturday combined to make our of the last weekends of summer a great one.

Our low temperature Saturday monring was 55 degrees. The record for this date was 50. The high on Saturday only reached 77 degrees officially at the airport.

Sunday started out cool again dropping down to 54 degrees. It looks unlikely we will crack 80 this afternoon once again!

The trend will be for temperatures to continue to slowly climb this week before another cool front ensures our below normal trends continue.

The official Climate Prediction Center forecasts keep us trending cool through early September.


Ted Keller
Senior Meteorologist
KOLR/KSFX-TV
Storm chasing and more at:
Ceaseless Wind

Bill Information

Ted Keller
Senior Meteorologist
KOLR/KSFX-TV
Storm chasing and more at:
Ceaseless Wind

Leaning Toward Cool and Wet Still

As the last days of August and summer come to a close, long range forecasts out to 10days (even 14 days) are pointing toward a continuation of the cooler and wetter trends of late. This pattern has been with us, with few interruptions, since the beginning of July. It is the result of a flow at the jet stream level which has been out of the northwest allowing cool fronts to slip southward at regular intervals. By my count, we have had nearly twenty "FROPA"'s (FROntal PAssages) since June 1st. Would you like to try counting these? Go to: http://www.hpc.ncep.noaa.gov/dailywxmap/

A pattern like this could also be cool and dry but the timing between fronts and the exact trajectory of the jet is allowing moisture and instability to build ahead of these systems and hence showers and storms can more easily develop. A review of the storms and rain of August 19/20 can be found here. If this pattern were more "amplified" (more north to south), we would still get the cool (likely even cooler) but the fronts would probably pass through "dry".

Ted Keller
Senior Meteorologist
KOLR/KSFX-TV
Storm chasing and more at:
Ceaseless Wind

Storm Summary August 19/20, 2009

A tornado watch is August? Not too common. Chalk it up to the 2009 “summer of cool fronts” pattern. With a pattern like this, we are bound to get rain and severe weather. Last night, the Ozarks were treated to both. A map examining radar estimated rainfall shows common 2-4″ totals in a swath from southeastern Kansas southeastward to Barry County and including the Joplin/Carthage area. This area was hit repeatedly by rain and storms Wednesday and Wednesday night. Other areas receiving 1.5 inches of rain or greater include portions of Dallas, Laclede, Pulaski, Phelps, Texas, Dent, Shannon, Howell and Douglas Counties.

There were also widespread reports of severe or sub-severe wind gusts. The NWS confirms that an EF1 tornado caused the destruction of a mobile home north of Roby resulting in one injury. There were numerous wall cloud and funnel reports in McDonald, Newton and Barry county as well.

Ted Keller
Senior Meteorologist
KOLR/KSFX-TV
Storm chasing and more at:
Ceaseless Wind

Tornado Warning for Newton and McDonald Counties

Newest tornado warning will affect Neosho within the next 30 minutes and might just threaten western Barry including Monett, Purdy and Cassville by midnight.

Ted Keller
Senior Meteorologist
KOLR/KSFX-TV
Storm chasing and more at:
Ceaseless Wind

Severe Update

It is possible for an extention of the tornado warning into northwestern Greene and southern Polk.

Ted Keller
Senior Meteorologist
KOLR/KSFX-TV
Storm chasing and more at:
Ceaseless Wind

Severe Weather Update

Line segment is bowing and will likely produce 70 mph winds from Joplin to Lamar over the next 45 minutes.

Ted Keller
Senior Meteorologist
KOLR/KSFX-TV
Storm chasing and more at:
Ceaseless Wind

Flash Flood Watch

A flash flood watch has just issued for tonight and early Thursday for a portion of the viewing area. The watch is in effect for folks living north of a line from around Neosho to Eminence, Missouri.

Portions of Hickory, St. Clair, Benton, Polk, Camden and Dallas Counties have received pretty heavy rains the past two Mondays and would be the most prone to flash flooding.

The good news is this front will make a clean sweep of the area by Thursday afternoon and set us up for a fantastic Friday through Sunday!


Ted Keller
Senior Meteorologist
KOLR/KSFX-TV
Storm chasing and more at:
Ceaseless Wind

More Rain, Severe Storms?

Yet another Summer 2009 front will work through the area starting Wednesday evening. With it, bands of showers ansd storms will lay down locally heavy rainfall. The area north of the line from Lamar to Salem will receive on average over an inch of rain with the Lake of the Ozarks area perhaps averaging closer to two inches. There is also a chance for severe storms with this front especially northwest of Springfield. This front drives temperatures back down for the weekend; look for lows in the fifties and highs averaging around eighty.


Ted Keller
Senior Meteorologist
KOLR/KSFX-TV
Storm chasing and more at:
Ceaseless Wind

Rainfall Today

This is a radar estimate of rain today.

Ted Keller
Senior Meteorologist
KOLR/KSFX-TV
Storm chasing and more at:
Ceaseless Wind

Hurricane Camille

Today is the anniversary of the landfall of Hurricane Camille, a category five storm which made landfall on the Mississippi coast in 1969.

Until the Karina disaster, Camille was the example of what a "worst case" gulf storm and the damage capable of producing.

Ted Keller
Senior Meteorologist
KOLR/KSFX-TV
Storm chasing and more at:
Ceaseless Wind

Ana and Bill

Tropical depression "Ana" has an uphill battle for strengthening over the next few days.

First, the system is weak and barely recognized as a closed-off low at the surface. Any organization Ana might try to gain would be wiped out by interactions with the mountains of the Dominican Republic, Haiti and Cuba. NOTE: NHC is downgraded this system to a trough a low pressure as of late this afternoon.

It is also in dry air in the middle levels of the atmosphere which makes sustained thunderstorm development very difficult.

Latest computer model guidance do have what's left of Ana emerging into the Gulf of Mexico late this week. It is at least plausible that this could reform into a stronger tropical system at this time.

Bill on the other hand is forecast to strengthen into a major hurricane over the next few days. But it really appears has if this storm will start its curve out over the Atlantic before it has a shot at the eastern U.S. The island of Bermuda will have to what Bill this weekend.

Note the the upper level winds later this week would be out of the northwest over the Ozarks so there is virtually no chance of any of these tropical systems affecting us with their rainfall.


Ted Keller
Senior Meteorologist
KOLR/KSFX-TV
Storm chasing and more at:
Ceaseless Wind

Gust Front

Scary sky! The dark leading edge of a thunderstorm line is moving through the metro area. Expect wind gusts to 50 or 60 mph with some of the embedded stronger storms.

Ted Keller
Senior Meteorologist
KOLR/KSFX-TV
Storm chasing and more at:
Ceaseless Wind

Line of Storms 8/17/09

A line of storms will be moving through the area this afternoon. Expect some damaging winds with these storms. The line will be in western Greene County by 1:05 and.in central Springfield by 1:35.



Ted Keller
Senior Meteorologist
KOLR/KSFX-TV
Storm chasing and more at:
Ceaseless Wind

SEVERE STORMS AND CLAUDETTE

A front drops south on Monday and triggers strong to severe storms to develop. Northern Arkansas will be spared from this activity until Tuesday, when the front is expected to stall out across southern Missouri. The main threats from the strongest of storms is hail and damaging winds. Locally heavy rainfall could lead to flash flooding.

The front will continue to sag south of the Ozarks and link up with tropical storm Claudette which should be a depression by the time it tracks across the Mississippi Valley. The next system to impact the Ozarks after this front is another cold front that will be arriving on Thursday.

3 TROPICAL STORMS FORMED IN THE PAST 2 DAYS

TROPICAL STORM ANA

Ana is forecast to weaken as it tracks across the Dominican Republic and Cuba over the next few days. It will emerge into the Gulf by Friday and will be a tropical depression at that time.

TROPICAL STORM BILL

Bill is a strong tropical storm and will soon become a major hurricane as it tracks northwestward across the Atlantic. Great uncertainty exists as to whether Bill will track towards the SE US or curve out to sea. It all depends on the strength of an approaching trough.

TROPICAL STORM CLAUDETTE

TD #4 just strengthened into a tropical storm and is forecast to track across the panhandle of Florida and towards SE Missouri. As of now, it appears as though a cold front moving across the Ozarks will keep the tropical circulation south of us.

These forecasts are from the National Hurricane Center and are susceptible to change. Computer models are showing different tracks with all of these tropical systems. There are many variables and a ton of uncertainty. Keep checking in for new updates!

Mid-August Weather Pattern

A normal pattern for mid-August is setting up. Small dips and ridges will be common with the jetstream, though high amplitude troughs and ridges are not expected. Every few days a dip in the jetstream will track across the upper Midwest and send a front in our direction. Seasonal temperatures are also on tap with highs in the upper 80s and lows in the upper 60s to around 70. We'll have to keep an eye on the tropics because if a system were to track into the Gulf, the Bermuda high may steer it northward. Inland flooding is always a concern when a tropical system makes landfall. Remember Ike and Gustav from last year?

TROPICS UPDATE

The tropics are heating up and we have two named storms in the Atlantic basin. Both Ana and Bill are tropical storms with maximum sustained winds of 40 mph. Both are moving westerly at 16 to 17 mph. Ana is forecast to maintain a more westerly track and Bill a WNW track. This subtle difference is HUGE because Ana is forecast to track over more land than Bill which means Ana will be weaker. Bill is forecast to track a little bit further northward and become a hurricane by Wednesday. The Bermuda high is directing the storms due to the clockwise flow around the system. The U.S. (Florida) may be impacted by Ana as soon as Thursday, however, Ana may only be a tropical storm at the time. A lot can change between now and then and both of these systems will need to be watched closely.

Our First Named Atlantic Storm?

This week in the eastern Atlantic, we’ve watched as the lead disturbance, formally TD#2, weakened while a new wave coming off the coast of Africa becomes better organized. This trend continues this morning. While the lead system still has a chance at organization, the one bringing up the rear seems to be one to watch.

In fact, the GFS model (only one of many to watch) continues to bring this into the Gulf as a vigorous hurricane by the weekend of the 22/23. Again, the devil is in the details and while the exactness of computer models cannot be trusted, it has been fairly consistent in maintaining this as a viable storm. Other models hold it together but curve in out over the Atlantic. This is the time of August favored for the development of waves coming off of the coast of Africa.

If this forms into a storm, the likely name would be the first on the list for 2009, "Ana". Next on the list is "Bob".

Ted Keller
Senior Meteorologist
KOLR/KSFX-TV
Storm chasing and more at:
Ceaseless Wind

Perseid Meteor Shower

The Perseid Meteor shower is in full swing. Sky conditions should be great as they were last night. The moon rises at about a quarter past 11 pm tonight which might interfer slightly with viewing let's say from midnight on.

Meteor showers are the result of the earth passing through bits of debris left in a comet path. The Perseids appear every August as the earth crosses the path of comet Swift-Tuttle.

More information can be found here.


Ted Keller
Senior Meteorologist
KOLR/KSFX-TV
Storm chasing and more at:
Ceaseless Wind

Summer 2009

We have had an interesting summer. It has leaned to the cool and wet side to be sure. Today is the 41st day of below normal readings since June 1st. There have only been 18 ninety-degree days, 10 of those were in June!

July was the 7th coolest on record in Springfield while other locations east of the city ranked much cooler if not coolest.

The rest of this week should stay below normal.

Ted Keller
Senior Meteorologist
KOLR/KSFX-TV
Storm chasing and more at:
Ceaseless Wind

Tropical Depression #2

The Atlantic basin is looking more active now in terms of possible tropical developments.

There are a few distrurbances over and east of the Leeward Islands but a tropical depression did form overnight west of the Cape Verde Islands. This system is about ten days from any potential interaction with the U.S.

Cape Verde storms are very common this time of year as waves come off of the African Coast traveling westward.


Ted Keller
Senior Meteorologist
KOLR/KSFX-TV
Storm chasing and more at:
Ceaseless Wind

6-10 Day Forecast

The period Sunday through Thursday of next week appears to be close to normal for temperature and rainfall in the Ozarks. An upper level low pressure area looks like it will establish itself over the western U.S., spreading cooler-than-normal air in the Great Plains. The Ozarks is on the extreme eastern end of this region. Rainfall will be maximized on the eastern side of the flow around the western low pressure system.

View all Climate Prediction Center extended forecasts.

Ted Keller
Senior Meteorologist
KOLR/KSFX-TV
Storm chasing and more at:
Ceaseless Wind

Storm Update 4:30 pm 8/10/09

The line of storms has fragmented a bit since earlier this afternoon and does not at this time represent a traditional bowing segment of storms with its accompanying widespread wind damage. However, it will still have some severe winds in connection with some of the stronger storms. Of larger concern is the additional rainfall that areas north of Springfield are now receiving and that the metro area will get beginning at about 5:15 and lasting through 6:45. Greene County and some of the surrounding area is presently under a flash flood warning.


Ted Keller
Senior Meteorologist
KOLR/KSFX-TV
Storm chasing and more at:
Ceaseless Wind

Severe Update August 10th 2:35 pm

An active bow echo which has caused wind damage in Kansas will cross into the northern portion of the viewing area this afternoon and early evening. A severe thunderstorm watch was issued for areas north of Springfield as a result of this advancing line. Folks north of a line from Lamar to Salem, MO need to be on the lookout for damaging wind as this line advances at about 40 mph.

This will affect the Truman Lake area starting at 3:30 and the Lake of the Ozarks starting at about 4:30 pm.

You can watch this line advance using interactive radar on Ozarksfirst.com


Ted Keller
Senior Meteorologist
KOLR/KSFX-TV
Storm chasing and more at:
Ceaseless Wind

Hurricanes and El Nino

A developing El Nino pattern has caused forecasters at the Climate Prediction Center and National Hurricane Center to pull back a bit on the number of named storms forecast in the Atlantic basin this season.

El Nino is warming of the equatorial waters of the Pacific to much above normal conditions. It usually starts in the eastern Pacific as the NOAA animation above shows. The warming of the waters helps to generate thunderstorms which in turn transport heat into the upper atmosphere. This strengthens the jet stream over the Atlantic equatorial regions. Strong jet stream winds, or more precisely the shear they produce, tear apart developing tropical systems. It’s ironic that powerful storms like Katrina actually require benign conditions in which to first start developing!

A complete write-up on this topic from NOAA can be found here.



Ted Keller
Senior Meteorologist
KOLR/KSFX-TV
Storm chasing and more at:
Ceaseless Wind

Hot Weekend

This weekend will see that hottest weather since our heat wave back in late June. Middle nineties will be common along with high humidity. This will mean the Heat Index will be at or over 100 during this period. The pattern breaks ever so slightly early next week as another weak front tries to drop through the Ozarks.


Ted Keller
Senior Meteorologist
KOLR/KSFX-TV
Storm chasing and more at:
Ceaseless Wind

Hurricane Stats

There has been some question about how many tropical storms and hurricanes should have shown up by now over the Atlantic Basin. It should be pointed out that in recent years, the season has been starting a tad early. The stats show August shows a rapid increase in the number of storms. The real season for hurricanes kicks in in late August and peaks around September 10th.

August has seen some powerful storms including Andrew, Camille and Katrina.




Ted Keller
Senior Meteorologist
KOLR/KSFX-TV
Storm chasing and more at:
Ceaseless Wind