Live Chase Stream

Two of my chaser friends from Springfield, Jason Blum and David Toner, are in Illinois today and plan are streaming. Watch them at:

http://www.mogulus.com/tonerblum

Storm Discussion #1

Some storms are firing north and east of a "leftover low" of sorts; a spinning in the middle of the atmosphere created from storms in Oklahoma last night. These "MCV's" are often the trigger for storms the next day as they drift along.

The wind shear needed to keep supercells held together is still low this morning over the area allthough these MCV's have a way of producing small wind features which go undetected and may help overcome this to a certain extent.

Areas from Springfield northeast and later anywhere to the east should watch these storms as they are capable of hail and gusty winds.

MODERATE RISK FOR SEVERE STORMS TODAY!!!

MODERATE RISK FOR SEVERE STORMS

TORNADO POTENTIAL IS GREATEST ACROSS THE N & NE PART OF THE OZARKS.

HAIL IS THE BIGGEST THREAT AND COULD BE UP TO THE SIZE OF BASEBALLS!!!

DAMAGING STRAIGHT LINE WINDS IS THE OTHER MAIN THREAT.
WINDS COULD EXCEED 80 MPH.

NWS Weather briefing summary from 11am:

- Storms developing south of I-44 this AM and early PM could produce quarter size hail and wind gusts to 50 mph.

-A cap in place will limit development early this afternoon. The cap (lid on the atmosphere) will break when temperatures rise into the lower to middle 80s late this afternoon/evening.

- CAPE (convective available potential energy) will range from 3-4,000 j/kg. What that means is that updrafts will be very strong with storms that develop and updrafts that strong can cause hail to grow up to the size of baseballs. When an updraft is that strong, the downdraft is strong as well and can produce winds greater than 80 mph at the surface.

- The greatest threat for tornadoes is across the northern half of the viewing area. In a line from Nevada to Bolivar to Lebanon.

-Isolated storms are possible this afternoon though by the evening hours, as the cold front approaches, storms will become more numerous and increase in intensity. Storm motion will be northeasterly though the line of storms will be tracking eastward.

-Timing: 4-9pm: Pittsburg, KS to Pomme de Terre and points northwestward
6pm-12am: Areas along I-44
Late tnt: South of I-44

Advisories, Watches and Warnings

There is a wind advisory in effect until 10pm this evening. Winds could gust up to 50 mph and will be sustained in some locations from 20-35 mph. Use extra caution while driving, especially if you have a high profile vehicle.

There is a flash flood watch in effect from Wednesday afternoon through Thursday morning. A cold front moving in will eventually stall out along the Missouri and Arkansas border overnight on Wednesday. Thunderstorms developing along the boundary will train (move over the same area) which could easily lead to flash flooding.

CONFIRMED TORNADOES ON MAY 8TH

The National Weather Service survey damage reports continue to come in.

So far 17 tornadoes have been confirmed....

Click on the link below for information about the confirmed tornadoes:

Survey Damage Details

The derecho that went through on Friday produced an above normal amount of tornadoes. Bowing segments can produce tornadoes but are usually known more for widespread and destructive straight line winds. Dr. Greg Forbes who is the severe weather expert from The Weather Channel, says the records kept aren't good regarding derecho events. He mapped 18 from a bow echo in central Illinois from 1977. This fact just emphasizes how rare an event Friday was.

Happy Mother's Day

Reflectivity of the deadly storms tracking out of Kansas

Mother's day is also the anniversary of the deadly tornadoes that impacted southwest Missouri.

Click on this link for an in depth look back at this horrific day in 2008:
May 10, 2008 TORNADOES

Friday 5/8 Windstorm and Tornadoes

The Ozarks experienced a bowing line segment of particularly large scale and strength this morning. Such a storm starts as a squall line and then under the right conditions will "bow" forward, creating a comma head at its northern end.

We actually had smaller bowing segments which formed a larger one this morning. The high wind warning was issued for winds on the back side of the "comma" which were actually stronger than the leading thunderstorms!

Tornadoes are often found near the comma head and back along the tail of the comma in smaller bowing segments. We know of one tornado in Republic this morning, confirmed in Laclede and possible in Texas and Howell counties as well.

We will be sifting through this information all day and have reports during our midday news at 11 am and of course our later shows!

FYI: a derecho is a long-lasting bowing segment which started here and is going to keep heading east all aftenoon. More information here. Ours was a progressive derecho.