Severe probability and tornado probablity for this evening and overnight.
The overall situation features the rapid return of moisture and instability northward through Oklahoma and into southeastern Kansas late this afternoon and early evening. This will flow straight into a very favorable wind shear pattern.
A narrow corridor of higher tornado probability exists on an axis from around Oklahoma City to Bolivar during this period.
I expect storms to initially develop in all long this axis tonight, forming a sort of "daisy chain" effect with the greatest tornadic potential for storms more to the west. These storms will then ride into our viewing area this evening and later tonight.
