Storm Discussion #3

Storm front is developing more slowly but will still impact the area later this evening and overnight. A severe thunderstorm watcj is in effect for the northwestern portion of our viewing area. Storms in SE Kansas have been isolated but non-tornadic so far. Some of these storms will begin to affect the western tier of counties of Missouri by about 9 pm.

As the jet stream provides greater support later tonight, these storms are expected to fill in a bit more and drop southeastward over the area. The system will likely become a squall line with embedded bowing segments of wind damage. Large hail (baseball for a few?) will also occur in the stronger storms. An isolated tornado is still possible with this line of storms.

It will be begin to stretch out more east-west overnight and become a big rain maker with average of 1-2" totals and a bullseye of perhaps a bit more over northwestern Arkansas.

Storm Discussion #2

Multi-cellular thunderstorm complex continues to move northeast with hail up to half-dollars possible and gusty winds. Storm warning in effect for portions of Wright and Texas counties.

Mobile Weather Lab

Meteorologist Jill Gilardi will be taking the Mobile Weather Lab out today. Watch for her Skype reports on the new KOLR news at 5 and 6!

Live Chase Stream

Two of my chaser friends from Springfield, Jason Blum and David Toner, are in Illinois today and plan are streaming. Watch them at:

http://www.mogulus.com/tonerblum

Storm Discussion #1

Some storms are firing north and east of a "leftover low" of sorts; a spinning in the middle of the atmosphere created from storms in Oklahoma last night. These "MCV's" are often the trigger for storms the next day as they drift along.

The wind shear needed to keep supercells held together is still low this morning over the area allthough these MCV's have a way of producing small wind features which go undetected and may help overcome this to a certain extent.

Areas from Springfield northeast and later anywhere to the east should watch these storms as they are capable of hail and gusty winds.

MODERATE RISK FOR SEVERE STORMS TODAY!!!

MODERATE RISK FOR SEVERE STORMS

TORNADO POTENTIAL IS GREATEST ACROSS THE N & NE PART OF THE OZARKS.

HAIL IS THE BIGGEST THREAT AND COULD BE UP TO THE SIZE OF BASEBALLS!!!

DAMAGING STRAIGHT LINE WINDS IS THE OTHER MAIN THREAT.
WINDS COULD EXCEED 80 MPH.

NWS Weather briefing summary from 11am:

- Storms developing south of I-44 this AM and early PM could produce quarter size hail and wind gusts to 50 mph.

-A cap in place will limit development early this afternoon. The cap (lid on the atmosphere) will break when temperatures rise into the lower to middle 80s late this afternoon/evening.

- CAPE (convective available potential energy) will range from 3-4,000 j/kg. What that means is that updrafts will be very strong with storms that develop and updrafts that strong can cause hail to grow up to the size of baseballs. When an updraft is that strong, the downdraft is strong as well and can produce winds greater than 80 mph at the surface.

- The greatest threat for tornadoes is across the northern half of the viewing area. In a line from Nevada to Bolivar to Lebanon.

-Isolated storms are possible this afternoon though by the evening hours, as the cold front approaches, storms will become more numerous and increase in intensity. Storm motion will be northeasterly though the line of storms will be tracking eastward.

-Timing: 4-9pm: Pittsburg, KS to Pomme de Terre and points northwestward
6pm-12am: Areas along I-44
Late tnt: South of I-44