The government (NOAA) has issued a forecast for the winter season. This is an El Nino year which means the waters in the equatorial eastern Pacific are unusually warm.
Every El Nino is slightly different but generally speaking, the southern storm track becomes more active especially in the western and southeastern U.S. Dry and mild air occupies much and the central and northern U.S. The centers of dry/moist warm/cold are away from the Ozarks which means we are somewhat "El Nino Neutral" with no probability of a significant pattern shift.
It should be noted that our multi-month run of below normal temperatures and slightly wet conditions seems poised to continue. Except for a spurt of warmth this week (still mostly below the norm), the forecast for just about the rest of October is a cool one.
It might work out that our winter will see a progression of "dry" cool fronts with cooler but not bitterly cold air following and that every once in a while one of these fronts will hang up along with a slight change in the jet stream and spit out meaningful precipitation; the exact type a bit hard to pin down honestly.
The complete NOAA forecast link.Ted Keller
Senior Meteorologist
KOLR/KSFX-TV
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