MSU Storm Chase Class

Thursday, March 26, 2009

Snow potential on Saturday

WINTER STORM WATCH HAS BEEN EXPANDED EASTWARD AND GOES INTO EFFECT FROM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH LATE SATURDAY NIGHT.
WINTER STORM WATCH GOES INTO EFFECT ON FRIDAY NIGHT UNTIL SATURDAY EVENING. 4-8" OF SNOW WILL LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE AREA UNDER THE WATCH.
This computer model indicates heavy snow arriving in W. MO/NW AR on Saturday morning.
The track of the heavy snow band is further east and impacts a good chunk of the western and northwestern portion of the Ozarks on Saturday morning and afternoon than compared to the other computer model down below.


By Saturday evening, snow will gradually be lifting out....


The probability of 4 or more inches of snow is greatest in the area outlined in red between Saturday and Sunday morning. There is at least a 40% chance of 4 or more inches across southwest Missouri and the Osage Plains during that time frame as well.
This computer model shows a slower track and has the heaviest snow band setting up just outside of the viewing area by Saturday evening.
This same model continues to indicate chances for snow into the overnight hours on Saturday with the heaviest falling across the northwestern half of the Ozarks.

Timing, speed of the system, track of the low, and temperatures are all critical as to how much, when and where snow might fall. At this point in time, the models continue to differ as shown above. It appears though, the consensus is that snow will fall especially across western Missouri at some point on Saturday. There is still a lot of uncertainty and we will continue to monitor the situation closely. If you have any questions or thoughts feel free to leave a comment.