Storms are forecast to form in Illinois and areas to the northeast and then build southwestward along the cold front during the late afternoon and evening hours. There is a slight risk for severe storms today. The main threats would be damaging winds and hail. The chance for an isolated tornado or two cannot be ruled out. There is still a lot of question as to whether or not supercells will even form. The greatest chance for surface-based storms is across Arkansas, except for the NW corner. We'll continue to monitor this situation as it unfolds.
First Tornado Hook Echo Observed 71Years Ago Today
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The advances in weather radar over the past 25 years have been astounding.
The tools now available to forecasters have greatly improved our ability to
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3 weeks ago
yes i notced the storm but i also noticed how warm it was getting in the long long range. march i think 4th or 5th thickness is up to 570 thru the area with mid 70 highs. THIS WILL SPELL TROUBLE LATER ON. SEVERE WEATHER IS UPON US.
ReplyDeleteTis' the season to get stormy..... Fa la la la laaa la la la laaaa... I'm ready to hit the road and chase some supercells!!!
ReplyDeletetake me with.. never been chasing. never seen a tornado either.
ReplyDeleteI went chasing once last year and saw a tornado for my first time. So I'm 1 for 1 and hope that my average remains high this season. ;)
ReplyDeleteAs usual, the models look like they're growing this thing into a severe weather, flash flood monster for our area. sigh.
ReplyDeleteThe Ozarks: It's never "just" rain.
It's still way too early to know where the band of heavy rain/storms will set up with this system. The early morning run showed the heaviest precip more towards I-70 while the most recent run shows the potential for 1-3" across S. MO. and N. AR. Models continue to indicate that ingredients will be in place for the possibility of strong storms. We'll be keeping a close eye on it over the next few days.
ReplyDeleteOne of the things that may limit instability on Thursday is lack of sunshine. Again... still too early to tell.
ReplyDeleteYeah, I realize it will flop around all over for the next couple days. And then we'll lock in on something with a couple days to go... and then when it's radar-watching time something very different happens.
ReplyDeleteI have to stop looking at these models! :D
hehe.... Ya the models are only so good. They give you a general idea as to what might happen though they have extreme difficulty figuring out what might happen on a mesoscale (small scale) level. When it comes down to the day of the possible event, I switch from looking at models onto what is actually happening. The surface map tells the story and comparing what is actually happening to what the model predicted for that time period is critical. Models had a tough time handling the moisture with the last system back on the 10th. So many variables have to come together for severe storms. We lacked sunshine and deep moisture.
ReplyDeleteYes, that's one of the reasons I watch you and Ted. I remember there was a storm setting up last year. I don't remember which month but I think it was late summer and I believe it was on a weekend. The models kept saying we were supposed to get like 3-5 inches of rain from it. When it actually happened, it turned out the storm started moving south much earlier than anyone thought. However, certain meteorologists on certain other channels kept sticking to their models and Jill, you were the only one who seemed to be watching the radar and saying, "Hey, I think we're gonna miss the worst of it." And of course you were right.
ReplyDeleteThanks for the compliment! Sometimes one has to go with their gut and the times that I don't I'm usually kicking myself afterwards.
ReplyDeleteRemember to SMILE (strict model interpretation laughable or eventful) !!!
ReplyDeleteSay cheese.... ;)
ReplyDelete0Z model shows the heaviest precip has shifted northward again along I-70 and northern MO.
ReplyDeleteHPC doesn't seem terribly impressed with rainfall amounts... yet.
ReplyDeletehttp://www.hpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/p120i12.gif
Ya, 12z run isn't impressive at all for precip amounts and once again has kept the heaviest rain to the northern half of the Ozarks to I-70 and points east towards STL. It will be one of those situations where we'll probably see some storms on Thursday but if we don't see enough sunshine/moisture transport then the threat for severe storms will be low.
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