The average jet stream flow over the next seven days features a fast flow over a tight belt in the central U.S. Frequent disturbances moving through this flow will ensure regular rain chances but also shots at severe weather.
This type of pattern produces clusters of storms (MCS's - Mesoscale Convective Systems) which travel along and slightly south of the average jet stream flow. Missouri and Arkansas are in, or on the northern end of, this zone!
This link loops through the 500 mb (about 18,000) flow. The wind roughly flows along the lines from west to east:
http://www.hpc.ncep.noaa.gov/medr/day3-7diff_500ensloop.html
Beyond Wednesday, it looks as if a deeper storm may develop out west which would be of concern to us too if it develops.
SMILE (strict model interpretation laughable or eventful) is always in effect of course!
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2 weeks ago
It looks like it's going to be a close call every couple of days on whether Southern Missouri gets walloped by heavy rain or whether it stays mostly in Arkansas.
ReplyDeleteAre there any signs that we'll ever get out of this pattern and into something a little less dreary?
Yes, the exact initiation point is always somewhat in question and of course makes a BIG difference on who gets wolloped with heavy rain.
ReplyDeleteSomewhat less gloomy Saturday late and Sunday early and then drier and warmer by Wednesday or Thursday.