MSU Storm Chase Class

Tuesday, December 1, 2009

SNOW OR NO SNOW?



The images above are two different computer models showing the precipitation output for tomorrow evening. They clearly differ and mean snow vs no snow for the Ozarks. If the top model is correct then accumulating snow is possible, mainly on grassy surfaces. Most places will see little or no accumulation, but if a heavy band sets up then a couple inches is possible.
Here's a list of the factors limiting snowfall across the Ozarks:
1. The track and speed of the low
2. Dry air in place
3. Timing of maximum lift and cold air
4. Air and ground temperature
The image on top aka NAM model is showing the low tracking much closer to the Ozarks than the image on bottom aka GFS model.
Overall there's a chance for rain changing over to snow. The chance for light accumulation is greatest to the southeast of Springfield. Rain chances will increase after 12pm and a change over is possible during the late afternoon and evening hours from northwest to southeast before the precipitation exits east.

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