SEVERE STORMS THIS EVENING?

This is the latest regarding the potential for severe weather tonight. The slight risk area has been reduced to include a small portion of northwest Missouri and that's it. Lack of moisture is limiting the development of widespread showers and storms.

Moisture and warmth is slowly creeping northward across Oklahoma and Kansas and will interact with a storm system approaching from the west this afternoon and through the overnight hours. Severe thunderstorms are going to be possible across the western half of the Ozarks. The main threat with any severe storm that develops will be large hail and damaging winds. The risk for tornadoes is mainly across northwest Missouri and NE Kansas.

FREEZING TEMPERATURES

FREEZE WATCH: LATE SUNDAY NT - WEDNESDAY MORNING

Canadian air moves in on Sunday and grows colder with time.

LOW TEMPERATURE FORECAST:

MONDAY MORNING: 27 degrees

TUESDAY MORNING: 19 degrees

WEDNESDAY MORNING: 30 degrees

*Prepare for sensitive outdoor vegetation and agriculture to be impacted by the freezing temps.*

A LOOK BACK AT PAST FREEZES IN APRIL....

2008

April 13: 29 degrees

April 14: 27 degrees

2007

April 5: 29 degrees

April 6: 26 degrees

April 7: 22 degrees (record)

April 8: 20 degrees (record)

April 9: 27 degrees

The freeze in 2007 caused widespread damage to crops and fruit trees across the Midwest.

The freeze taking place next week will not last as long as the one in 2007 though we could easily tie or break the old record high on Tuesday morning.

A Tad Frosty

As wind begin to slacken tonight and clear skies remain, a threat for frost exists for the area in light blue above. High pressure will move overhead which at first will allow for the calm conditions but by Wednesday will have moved east, putting us back in southerly breezes and normal highs in the lower sixties.

Thursday Rain

A storm system is expected to track to our south Thursday and a shield of heavier rain should accompany this storm. A couple of inches of rain are possible especially in north central Arkansas and south central Missouri where thunderstorms will also be mixed in. Even though the storm is passing to the south, it doesn't look like enough cold air will be in place to produce any winter precipitation.

Wind (and storm?)

It has been a windy day across the Ozarks. Winds have gusts over 30 mph commonly today and a wind advisory has been posted.

A cold front will sweep through later tonight. Out ahead of this feature, a few strong thunderstorms may develop and some may produce severe wind gust. Tis activity appears to be more likely to the west and southwest of Springfield during the evening and overnight hours.

Snow Update!

Well, it's a late season snow! The good news is we won't come close to the blizzard conditions experienced in Colorado and Kansas. But the Ozarks will see some accumulating snow on Saturday. Points north and west of a line from Joplin to Osage Beach may see 2" of snow by the time it wraps up late Saturday evening. Springfield will get about an inch. Areas southeast will see a dusting or none.

Travelers should be aware that the K.C. area will see about 4-8" and areas of south central Kansas will pick up 8-14"!!!

Snow potential on Saturday

WINTER STORM WATCH HAS BEEN EXPANDED EASTWARD AND GOES INTO EFFECT FROM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH LATE SATURDAY NIGHT.

WINTER STORM WATCH GOES INTO EFFECT ON FRIDAY NIGHT UNTIL SATURDAY EVENING. 4-8" OF SNOW WILL LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE AREA UNDER THE WATCH.
This computer model indicates heavy snow arriving in W. MO/NW AR on Saturday morning.
The track of the heavy snow band is further east and impacts a good chunk of the western and northwestern portion of the Ozarks on Saturday morning and afternoon than compared to the other computer model down below.

By Saturday evening, snow will gradually be lifting out....

The probability of 4 or more inches of snow is greatest in the area outlined in red between Saturday and Sunday morning. There is at least a 40% chance of 4 or more inches across southwest Missouri and the Osage Plains during that time frame as well.

This computer model shows a slower track and has the heaviest snow band setting up just outside of the viewing area by Saturday evening.
This same model continues to indicate chances for snow into the overnight hours on Saturday with the heaviest falling across the northwestern half of the Ozarks.

Timing, speed of the system, track of the low, and temperatures are all critical as to how much, when and where snow might fall. At this point in time, the models continue to differ as shown above. It appears though, the consensus is that snow will fall especially across western Missouri at some point on Saturday. There is still a lot of uncertainty and we will continue to monitor the situation closely. If you have any questions or thoughts feel free to leave a comment.