RISK FOR SEVERE STORMS

The Storm Prediction Center has upgraded a portion of the moderate risk area to a high risk. Long-tracked and violent tornadoes are possible across that area today. There is a moderate risk for severe storms from north central Texas to northeast Kansas. There is a slight risk for severe storms across several states including the central and western half of the Ozarks. Storms will be firing across the moderate risk area this afternoon and will need to be watched as they migrate closer to the Ozarks. Computer models continue to indicate the storm activity holding off from pushing into western MO until early Monday morning.
The cold front triggering the storm development makes a move on us on Monday. There is a slight risk for severe storms. Instability will be limited which means storms won't be as intense as they will be today. Some hail and isolated damaging wind gusts will be possible with the strongest storms that develop.

INCHES OF RAIN EXPECTED

1-2" of rain, with areas receiving locally around 3" is possible on Monday. The heaviest rain is expected to fall along and to the southeast of I-44.

The precipitation forecast from this morning until Wednesday morning shows a large area receiving 2" of rain. Southern Missouri and Arkansas could receive 3-4" when all is said and done.

If you live near a low water crossing or river be prepared for flash flooding and eventually river flooding.

Remember to never try to cross a roadway that has water moving across it. It doesn't take much water to move a vehicle! Even if you have a truck, you are powerlessness to the force of water. Flash floods cause more deaths than any other type of weather in the U.S.

Heavy Rain Potential

Persistent southerly flow off of the Gulf of Mexico has begun which will slowly bring up the humidity levels into this weekend and early next week. This coupled with a slowly-moving upper air pattern with embedded disturbances will lead to several rounds of rain.

In the Ozarks, the first batch will arrive Monday. The map above is a 48 hour rain total forecast which runs from 7 am Sunday to 7 am Tuesday. If this pans out, a large chunk of the Ozarks will see 2-3" totals with more in the extreme western and southwestern portion of Missouri.

Note that another round of rain may occur mid-week with the potential for even more rainfall.

SEVERE STORMS OUTLOOK

There is a chance for severe storms on Sunday into Monday across the northwest and southwest portion of the viewing area, including Springfield. A frontal boundary sets up across Missouri and stretches southwestward back into central Oklahoma. Gulf moisture will increase ahead of it, which is one ingredient needed for severe storms.

WARMTH EXPANDS EAST

The last time it reached 80 degrees in Springfield was on March 6. This will be the warmest air we've experienced yet this spring and the longest period with temperatures above 75 degrees.

LYRID METEOR SHOWER ON WEDNESDAY MORNING

Sky conditions should be good for viewing the meteor shower late tonight/tomorrow morning. Earth is entering a stream of debris from Comet Thatcher, the source of the annual Lyrid meteor shower. Forecasters expect the shower to peak before dawn on Wednesday. 10-20 meteors per hour are possible. If you don't see any meteors but happen to look to the east just before sunrise you will see the crescent Moon and Venus.

Flooding Concerns Today...

A flood advisory means river or stream flows are elevated or ponding of water in urban and other areas is occurring or is imminent.

A flood warning means that flooding is immenent or has been reported. Stream rises will be slow and flash flooding is not expected. All interested parties should take necessary precautions immediately though.