Anytime an average temperature is plus/minus 4.0 or more from the normal it is significant.
In addition, we broke four record lows that summer, three of which were in the forties, very chilly!
Records set in 2004:
The Ozarks finds itself in a flow of winds out of the northwest with imbedded weather systems producing areas of showers and storms. The map above is the Monday-Tuesday forecast of rainfall accumulation forecast by the HPC.
The rain should slide in this evening and overnight tonight and last through the first half of Tuesday. Temperatures will remain cool for the season through mid-week.
Morning lows were broken or tied!
West Plains and Rolla/Vichy stand another chance of breaking a record low tonight.
The image above shows the predicted amount of rain that could fall between Monday and Tuesday evening. 1-2" of rain is possible across SW Missouri, SE Kansas, NE Oklahoma and NW Arkansas. The least amount of rain is forecast to fall across the eastern half of the Ozarks. If the track of the system shifts further eastward then the heavier amounts will as well.
Here is a chart of the record lows and the forecast lows for tonight/Sunday morning. Most places stand a good chance of breaking the old record low by a degree or two. Clouds and higher dewpoint readings would be the only factors that could stand in the way of this happening. Clouds act like a blanket and keep heat in at night. The air temperature can never drop below the dewpoint temperature.
The normal high for this time of year is 90 degrees and highs in the lower 80s are likely on Sunday.
Our next system will be brewing to our west on Monday. The question is which track will the system take??? Models differ "big time" right now. One model shows the rain only grazing the western half of the Ozarks on Tuesday while the other shows a good chance for rain and storms everywhere. For now, I'm leaning towards the drier forecast. Keep checking in for further updates!
A high pressure system from Canada will send our overnight lows this weekend to record-breaking territory. The forecast for Saturday morning is 54 and the record is 53. Sunday morning is being pegged at 53 and the record is presently 57.
