Severe Storm Outlook Fore This Afternoon and Evening

SPC Mesoscale Discussion;

"A PRE-FRONTAL LOWER/MID TROPOSPHERIC THERMAL RIDGE IS GRADUALLY
BECOMING SUPPRESSED SOUTHWARD ACROSS PARTS OF THE MID MISSISSIPPI/
LOWER OHIO VALLEY REGION...TO THE SOUTH OF THE COLD UPPER TROUGH
ACROSS CENTRAL CANADA AND THE UPPER GREAT LAKES REGION. AS THIS
OCCURS...DESTABILIZATION AND FORCING ALONG THIS FEATURE APPEARS
LIKELY TO BECOME THE FOCUS FOR INCREASING/INTENSIFYING CONVECTIVE
DEVELOPMENT FROM SOUTHERN MISSOURI INTO THE KENTUCKY/TENNESSEE
BORDER AREA...WHERE MERGING/CONSOLIDATING STORMS WILL CONTRIBUTE TO
ONE EXPANDING STORM CLUSTER IN THE PRESENCE OF MODERATE TO STRONG
POTENTIAL INSTABILITY. FORCING ASSOCIATED WITH WESTERN PORTION OF
LOW AMPLITUDE TROUGH SHIFTING WITHIN BROADER SCALE CYCLONIC FLOW
ACROSS THE REGION MAY SUPPORT ANOTHER GROWING STORM CLUSTER ACROSS
SOUTHEAST MISSOURI INTO WESTERN KENTUCKY. AS THIS OCCURS...AND
ASSOCIATED SURFACE COLD POOLS DEVELOP/STRENGTHEN MOMENTUM/SHEAR
ASSOCIATED WITH A 30-50 KT WESTERLY 500 MB SPEED MAXIMUM WILL
PROBABLY EVENTUALLY CONTRIBUTE TO INCREASING DAMAGING WIND POTENTIAL
BY EARLY EVENING. UNTIL THIS OCCURS...THE RISK FOR FREQUENT CLOUD
TO GROUND LIGHTNING AND LARGE HAIL WILL EXIST...ALONG WITH A GRADUAL
INCREASE IN POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAINFALL AS STORMS BEGIN TO TRAIN.""


Ted Keller
Senior Meteorologist
KOLR/KSFX-TV
Storm chasing and more at:
Ceaseless Wind

Storm Update 2:30 pm 8/4/09

All calculations based on radar at 2:30 pm.

A line of strong to severe thunderstorms will be descending SE through Dade, Polk and Dallas county over the next hour. The line will be in northern Greene County at about 3:30 and in the Springfield city between 3:30 and 4:00 pm. Watch out for damaging wind and hail with some of these storms.



Ted Keller
Senior Meteorologist
KOLR/KSFX-TV
Storm chasing and more at:
Ceaseless Wind

The severe weather outlook for today was updated slightly to include more of the Ozarks farther south. Outflows from rain and storms to the north of the viewing area earlier today may be the focus for thunderstorm development later this afternoon. The primary threat should be some locally damaging winds and small hail.


Ted Keller
Senior Meteorologist
KOLR/KSFX-TV
Storm chasing and more at:
Ceaseless Wind

ACTIVE STORM TRACK THIS WEEK

Thunderstorms can't be ruled out on a daily and nightly basis through Thursday of this week. Northwesterly winds aloft will have distrubances embedded within the flow that will track from the High Plains southeastward and across parts of Missouri. The greatest threat for storms this week will be where the slight risk sets up. Damaging winds in excess of 60 mph, large hail and heavy rainfall are the main threats. The problem with the disturbances that track close to the Ozarks is that they lay out boundaries that can cause other storms to develop, which the models don't pick up on. Night time complexes that track close or across our area this week will have a big impact on temperatures. For now, anticipate highs in the lower 90s and lows in the lower 70s.

Summer Edging Back

The pattern of steering winds we experienced last week with frequent cool fronts and cooler air has shifted to a more typical summer pattern favoring hot weather over the nation's mid-section and cool fronts staying more north closer to the jet stream winds. This will mean we have several opportunities to reach ninety or higher this week.

Fronts which "backdoor" the Ozarks, those that slide in from the north or even east, will have to watched for showers and thunderstorms which may tone down the building heat a tad on days they are observed.



Ted Keller
Senior Meteorologist
KOLR/KSFX-TV
Storm chasing and more at:
Ceaseless Wind

Severe Storms a Glancing Blow?

The jet stream has shifted back north and east but is still flowing out of the northwest this week. This means that fronts will now frequent areas from Iowa to Illinois and by proximity northern and eastern Missouri.

The next test of this new flow pattern will be a frobt sliding through late Monday and Tuesday. Severe storms will be possible in the zone indicated on the map which would affect areas mostly north and east of Springfield say from Lake of the Ozarks southeastward to Shannon County.


Ted Keller
Senior Meteorologist
KOLR/KSFX-TV
Storm chasing and more at:
Ceaseless Wind

TOP 10 COOLEST JULY TEMPERATURE AVERAGES