MAJOR STORM SYSTEM

All the right ingredients are forecast to come together on Thursday for strong to severe storms to develop from Texas to Oklahoma to the Ozarks. The environment is favorable for tornadoes in isolated cells that develop and perhaps within a broken squall line. Damaging wind gusts and hail will also be possible. The greatest threat for severe storms as of today is across northeastern Oklahoma. The timing of the event is during the afternoon and evening hours before weakening across the Ozarks during the overnight hours. The main threats across the Ozarks will be damaging straight line winds and hail to the size of quarters. Strong wind shear will create a marginal risk for an isolated tornado across far southwest Missouri.

The biggest concern from the slow moving frontal system is for heavy rainfall and flooding on Thursday and Thursday night. Overnight, scattered storms will be possible across the far northwestern corner of the Ozarks. Severe storms are not expected during that time frame. Heavy rainfall leading to flash flooding is expected on Thursday into early Friday. Widespread amounts of 3-5", with locally higher amounts are possible. A flash flood watch remains in effect from late tonight through Friday morning. This episode of heavy rainfall will result in significant flooding of small streams, creeks and rivers.

REMEMBER TO NEVER TRY AND DRIVE ACROSS A FLOODED ROADWAY!

FLASH FLOODING KILLS MORE PEOPLE EACH YEAR THAN TORNADOES AND LIGHTNING!!

COLDEST AIR OF THE SEASON

Low pressure tracking across the Great Lakes region sends a cold front through tonight. It will be windy and warm ahead of the front and breezy and much colder behind the front. Highs will struggle early in the week to rise to 70 degrees and overnight lows in the 40s will be common. Record lows are not expected though temperatures will be running around 10 degrees below normal.

By the middle of the week, the cold air lifts out and seasonal air moves in ahead of the next approaching storm system. The good thing about this week is that we'll see dry weather lasting until Thursday.

A POTENT SYSTEM LATE IN THE WEEK

Computer models continue to indicate a strong storm system swinging southward across the Midwest on Thursday and causing strong to severe storms to develop. The timing has fluctuated over the past few days though the overall consensus has been Thursday evening all along. We'll continue to monitor the development of this system and pass along any new information as we receive it. The air mass following this system is nearly as cold as the one moving in early in the week.

SUMMER-LIKE SUNDAY

Temperatures rise above normal on Sunday, with highs in the lower to middle 80s. Normal highs are in the upper 70s this time of year. Southwest winds increase ahead of an approaching cold front tomorrow, which will advect the summer-like air mass northward. The cold front is set to pass through at night and bring fall readings to the Ozarks early in the week.

A BIG COOL DOWN IS COMING...

A dry cold front is forecast to pass through on Sunday night and bring the coldest air of the season so far. Highs will struggle to rise into the 70s on Monday. Lows in the lower 40s are a good possibility by Tuesday morning, which is the coldest air we've experienced since the middle of May. The below normal air mass will only linger for a couple of days before we warm back up again.

Heavy Rain Tonight

A slow moving front will continue to drop in some cases inches of rain on the Ozarks through tonight. The areas which will receive the most are portions of Greene, Lawrence, Barry, Jasper, Newton and McDonald Counties in Missouri and Benton and Washington Counties in northwest Arkansas where over 3" could fall locally.

Ted Keller
Senior Meteorologist
KOLR/KSFX-TV
Storm chasing and more at:
Ceaseless Wind

STRONG STORM SYSTEM EARLY IN THE WEEK

The jetstream digging southward across the Midwest sends a strong cold front our way. The right atmospheric conditions will come together causing severe storms to develop late on Monday. The primary threats are damaging winds, large hail and flooding rains. The western Ozarks stand the greatest chance of experiencing severe weather. Areas to the east of highway 65 will mainly deal with weaking storms and heavy rainfall late on Monday night and into Tuesday morning.

Here is a general rainfall forecast for Monday night through Tuesday night. Locally higher amounts will definitely be possible. The heaviest rain is forecast to fall across an area that has already seens several inches of rain. Flash flooding is a definite concern and a watch may be issued later in time from the National Weather Service.