FALL FOLIAGE

We need cool sunny days followed by cooler nights to have good color. It takes sunny days with temperatures in the 50s, then cooler nights with temperatures in the lower 40s to produce strong color. The temperatures spread between day and night needs to be at least 10 degrees and 15 degrees is better. A frost does not help develop strong color. If leaves freeze hard the chemical process of color change stops and the leaves simply turn brown. Leaves are changing fast but is atleast 2 weeks away from the major peak color across southern Missouri and northern Arkansas.

FALL FOLIAGE LINKS:

http://www.na.fs.fed.us/spfo/pubs/misc/leaves/leaves.htm

http://www.fs.fed.us/r9/conditions/fall_color/

http://mdc.moa.gov/nathis/seasons/fall/

http://www.ozarkmtns.com/foliage/reports.asp

FLOODING UPDATE and TOTALS

A FLOOD WARNING is in effect for the following rivers:

JAMES RIVER AT GALENA, BIG PINEY RIVER AT FORT LEONARD WOOD ,SAD RIVER NEAR CAPLINGER MILLS, ELK RIVER, LITTLE OSAGE RIVER, MARMATON RIVER, OSAGE RIVER, SHOAK CREAK, AND SPRING RIVER.

Do not drive through flowing water. Nearly half of all flood fatalities are vehicle related. As little as 6" of water may cause you to loose control of your vehical. Two feet of water will carry most vehicles away.

A FLOOD WARNING remains in effect until 10 am on Saturday.

STORM RAINFALL TOTALS FROM VIEWERS:

- 6" between Strafford and Northview

- 9.75" in Urbana

- 7 to 7.5" east of Marshfield

- 6.5" west of Gainesville

- 4.5" yesterday and 3.5" today in Nixa

- 6.8" west of Nixa

- 7" in Rogersville

- 7" in Stotts City

- 4.88" in Battlefield

- 4.78" in Mtn. Home

- 6.5" in Ozark

- 5.03" in Seymour

- 5.5 to 5.75" in Springfield

- 4" in Barnett

-7.35" total in Battlefield

FLASH FLOOD WARNINGS & TORNADO WATCH

The tornado watch in Arkansas also includes Ozark, Howell and Oregon counties in SE MO. The watch is in effect until 3am. The severe threat will increase tonight as a line-segment moves across Arkansas. A tornado threat along with hail and damaging winds will be possible with supercells that develop and bowing line-segments. The biggest threat tonight will come from the rain and flash flooding.

SIGNIFICANT FLOODING IS POSSIBLE

Heavy rain stretching all the way from Texas to Ohio is tracking over the same areas and causing flash flooding. Several counties are under flash flood warnings and the entire viewing area is under a flash flood watch until Friday morning. The axis of heavy rainfall is forecast to slowly shift southeastward tonight and tomorrow. If it's not raining where you are, it will be by tonight. An additional 3-5" of rain is forecast to fall with locally higher amounts exceeding 6". Many roadways across the northern part of the Ozarks are impassible and that trend will only worsen tonight further south. Be prepared to move to higher grounds if you experience flooding. Don't risk your life by attempting to cross a flooded roadway.

MAJOR STORM SYSTEM

All the right ingredients are forecast to come together on Thursday for strong to severe storms to develop from Texas to Oklahoma to the Ozarks. The environment is favorable for tornadoes in isolated cells that develop and perhaps within a broken squall line. Damaging wind gusts and hail will also be possible. The greatest threat for severe storms as of today is across northeastern Oklahoma. The timing of the event is during the afternoon and evening hours before weakening across the Ozarks during the overnight hours. The main threats across the Ozarks will be damaging straight line winds and hail to the size of quarters. Strong wind shear will create a marginal risk for an isolated tornado across far southwest Missouri.

The biggest concern from the slow moving frontal system is for heavy rainfall and flooding on Thursday and Thursday night. Overnight, scattered storms will be possible across the far northwestern corner of the Ozarks. Severe storms are not expected during that time frame. Heavy rainfall leading to flash flooding is expected on Thursday into early Friday. Widespread amounts of 3-5", with locally higher amounts are possible. A flash flood watch remains in effect from late tonight through Friday morning. This episode of heavy rainfall will result in significant flooding of small streams, creeks and rivers.

REMEMBER TO NEVER TRY AND DRIVE ACROSS A FLOODED ROADWAY!

FLASH FLOODING KILLS MORE PEOPLE EACH YEAR THAN TORNADOES AND LIGHTNING!!

COLDEST AIR OF THE SEASON

Low pressure tracking across the Great Lakes region sends a cold front through tonight. It will be windy and warm ahead of the front and breezy and much colder behind the front. Highs will struggle early in the week to rise to 70 degrees and overnight lows in the 40s will be common. Record lows are not expected though temperatures will be running around 10 degrees below normal.

By the middle of the week, the cold air lifts out and seasonal air moves in ahead of the next approaching storm system. The good thing about this week is that we'll see dry weather lasting until Thursday.

A POTENT SYSTEM LATE IN THE WEEK

Computer models continue to indicate a strong storm system swinging southward across the Midwest on Thursday and causing strong to severe storms to develop. The timing has fluctuated over the past few days though the overall consensus has been Thursday evening all along. We'll continue to monitor the development of this system and pass along any new information as we receive it. The air mass following this system is nearly as cold as the one moving in early in the week.