Severe Weather Update 3/9 9:30 PM

Severe Weather Update 3/9 7:50 PM

Severe Storms Monday 3/9

Severe probability and tornado probablity for this evening and overnight.

The overall situation features the rapid return of moisture and instability northward through Oklahoma and into southeastern Kansas late this afternoon and early evening. This will flow straight into a very favorable wind shear pattern.

A narrow corridor of higher tornado probability exists on an axis from around Oklahoma City to Bolivar during this period.

I expect storms to initially develop in all long this axis tonight, forming a sort of "daisy chain" effect with the greatest tornadic potential for storms more to the west. These storms will then ride into our viewing area this evening and later tonight.

SEVERE STORM THREAT ON MONDAY

A warm front lifts northward tomorrow causing showers and storms to develop along and ahead of it across Oklahoma and Kansas. Some of the storms may be severe. The strongest storms appear as though they'll mainly impact Kansas and Oklahoma though a few may hold together and track into western Missouri tomorrow afternoon and evening.

STORM PREDICTION CENTER OUTLOOK

SLIGHT RISK FOR SEVERE STORMS TNT
GREATEST THREAT FOR DAMAGING STRAIGHT-LINE WINDS

GREATEST THREAT FOR LARGE HAIL

TORNADO THREAT

TRACKING THE STORMS

Discrete cells across Kansas continue to show signs of rotation and have spawned a tornado or two today. These cells are tracking northeastward, however, the entire cluster is gradually sliding east. The greatest threat for large hail, damaging winds and isolated tornadoes tonight will be across eastern Kansas and the northwestern portion of the Ozarks. If you live in a line from Nevada to Warsaw and points northwestward, you are in an area where the potential for severe storms is the greatest. Overall, the threat for tornadoes is low tonight but can't be ruled out.

Severe Weather This Weekend

Tornado Probability last Saturday 3/7/09

Severe risk today Saturday 3/7/09

Some scattered storms will develop by late afternoon in the Ozarks and out to the west.

The air is expected to be somewhat more stable for showers and storms which develop over the Ozarks late Saturday but storm which fire out west have a better chance of being isolated severe. These storms could move into the western portion of our viewing area by evening.

If clouds break this afternoon, more substantial heating at the ground will lead to more unstable air. This coupled with a strong and favorable wind pattern is why the tronado probablity has gone up for areas west and north of Springfield.

A cool front which was to move through late Saturday night now appears as if it has lost much of its punch Sunday meaning the the day will really be pretty warm and scattered showers and storms may still be around especially to our east and south.

The next front next week looks stronger and severe weather will be possible as it approaches. A pattern similar to this one may set up again Monday.