Memorial Day Forecast

A slow-poke low and loads of humidity will mean showers and storms will continue to fire at will rather early on Monday. The slow movement and abundent moisture will mean locally heacy downpours will be more likely across a larger portion of the Ozarks than in previous days.

Tornado Stats 2009

Tornadoes this year across the U.S. are running a bit behind the three-year running average. With the exception of April, all months are lower than the average.

Dry and warming up!

The jet stream remains across the northern tear of the U.S. this week, which is a pattern you typically see during the summer season. A pattern like this is a sign of warm and dry weather. Beginning on Wednesday, high temperatures should max out around 80 degrees.

Wet or Dry on Memorial Day Weekend?

Late in the week, high pressure will continue to do a good job of keeping Gulf moisture and storm chances away from the Ozarks. Over Memorial Day weekend, the high breaks down and storm chances start going up late on Sunday and are greatest on Memorial Day. Uncertainty with this forecast still exists. Overall, I'd plan your outdoor activities on Saturday!

Storm Discussion #2 5/15/09

Radar at 10:18 PM

A moderate gust front outflow will continue to push out ahead of the storms this evening with winds up to 40 or 50 mph.

Small hail will also be possible from some of the storm cells behind the outflow. Some storms coming out of Oklahoma may be severe in northwest Arkansas or perhaps extreme southern Missouri within the next few hours.

Storm Discussion #1 5/15/09

Radar at 7:24 this evening. A severe thuderstorm watch has been posted from roughly Springfield north this evening. Storms to the north are outflow dominated. Notice the thin line out ahead of the main cells. This suggests a bit of weakening and at radar time none of these storms are warned upon.

A cold front will start giving all of this a push later this evening and overnight. Storms might once again increase their severe potential when this happens. Tornadoes are not thought to be a large threat at this time but as always, bowing segments and intersections with old bounderies will have to be watched.