Summer Returning Next Week?

The jet stream pattern which has provided us with cooler air and frequent rain shots looks as if it will back off a bit by next week. This week was spent watching this pattern, which had been focusing on the northeast and Great Lake states, gradually deepen and shift westward.

This resulted in a continuous run of cool weather and frequent visits by fronts providing rain and storm chances. The pattern will still be very much in effect through thr weekend with yet another front riding through the area late Saturday.

Now next week, an area of hot weather to our southwest will expand eastward into the plains and begin to heat us up. Nineties will likely return, possibily as early as Tuesday, and might last the week.

The rain pattern will establish itself to our north and east once again as the possibility of ”backdoor cool fronts” (those that back in from the east) returns to the region.



Ted Keller
Senior Meteorologist
KOLR/KSFX-TV
Storm chasing and more at:
Ceaseless Wind

Flood Potential

Today's rain has been persistent and heavy in portions of northern Arkansas and south central Missouri were flash flood warnings are currently in effect.

This rain is slowly exiting to the east and will be gone by overnight. Expect additional 0.50 to 1.00" totals with locally heavier amounts.

Ted Keller
Senior Meteorologist
KOLR/KSFX-TV
Storm chasing and more at:
Ceaseless Wind

Rain This Weekend

More wet weather along yet another cool front is expected to impact the area by Saturday afternoon. Expect showers and thunderstorm to develop and move through, moving clear of the area by Sunday morning. Rain totals look to be in the range of .25 to 1.00 inches.

It looks like a warmer and drier pattern of air will finally assert itself being on Monday.

Ted Keller
Senior Meteorologist
KOLR/KSFX-TV
Storm chasing and more at:
Ceaseless Wind

Heavy Rains South of Springfield

A flash flood watch has been issued for areas of north-central Arkansas for tonight and early on Thursday.

An area of heavy rain and thunderstorms is forecast to slide ENE over this region during the period. Rainfall totals in central Arkansas could exceed 4" during this time. The portion of the watch within the viewing area is forecast to receive about 1-2" with locally heavier totals possible.

The rain will give us a break beginning later on Thursday, through Friday and perhaps until early Saturday. By Saturday afternoon, more storms slide in along yet another weak cool front.

Ted Keller
Senior Meteorologist
KOLR/KSFX-TV
Storm chasing and more at:
Ceaseless Wind

Rain Discussion for This Week

A sagging jet stream along with abundant moisture and several cool fronts will lead to extended rainfall chances this week.

The five day rainfall forecast issued by the Hydrological Prediction Center (HPC) is quite inmpressive and concerning for folks living in a swath from northern Texas/southern Oklahoma through portions of Arkansas/Louisiana and on into Mississippi and Alabama. This area is forecast to receive anywhere from 4 to perhaps over 8 inches of rain this week!

The Ozarks sits in the 2-3" range which if spread five days is soggy but not a concern for widespread issues. This situation needs to be watched as the week unfolds.

The first salvo of rain is in connection with a cool front which begins to affect the area on Tuesday and early Wednesday. There appears to be a break in the organized rain on Wednesday. It remains to be seen of another band widespread rain will form later in the week.



Ted Keller
Senior Meteorologist
KOLR/KSFX-TV
Storm chasing and more at:
Ceaseless Wind

Rain Past & Future

The Ozarks have experienced a normal to slightly above normal pattern of rain this summer, much of this thanks to last week's soaking which laid down the most rain in eastern Kansas and western Missouri. Going back thirty days, only the extreme eastern portion of the region around the Shannon County area is still slightly dry. Turning back three months, the area is still mostly on the dry side except for areas northwest of Springfield.

There are some expectations for rain this week. Recent trends have shifted the bullseye of maximum rainfall to the south of our area over the next five days. Totals in those areas would of course be too excessive; we would be doing well to receive what is on the forecast graphic from the HPC. The current thinking is that the maximum rainfall will be along the front which moved through our region on Saturday an will hang up to our south. Another front will be dropping in Tuesday which will provide us with our mid-week rain. We will avoid getting too much rain if the southern front provides the focus for rain as presently thought.





Ted Keller
Senior Meteorologist
KOLR/KSFX-TV
Storm chasing and more at:
Ceaseless Wind

TOP 10 COOLEST JULY POSSIBLE

Temperatures so far this July have been below average.

NWS average temperature forecast for this July:

Springfield: 74.7 Joplin: 76.7 Rolla/Vichy: 74.2 West Plains: 74.5

The 10th coolest July on record in Springfield was 74.5 in 2004. It appears that temperatures will need to be cooler than forecast at Springfield to produce a top ten coolest July.

If the current forecast in the other cities is correct then a top ten spot is likely to be reached.

Both Rolla and West Plains are in line for a top five coolest July.

Current Top 5:

Rolla: 74.7 in 1960 West Plains: 74.8 in 2007