SEVERE STORM THREAT THURSDAY

Storms are forecast to form in Illinois and areas to the northeast and then build southwestward along the cold front during the late afternoon and evening hours. There is a slight risk for severe storms today. The main threats would be damaging winds and hail. The chance for an isolated tornado or two cannot be ruled out. There is still a lot of question as to whether or not supercells will even form. The greatest chance for surface-based storms is across Arkansas, except for the NW corner. We'll continue to monitor this situation as it unfolds.

SNOW FOR THE 3RD WEEKEND IN A ROW?

The images above show total liquid forecast amounts for Saturday. Notice how the computer models do not agree on amounts but do agree on the general track of precipitation. Converting liquid amounts over to snow with each model, the general consensus is that the heaviest snow will fall east of Springfield or north.

GFS converted: 1" or less might fall in a line from Joplin to Branson to Mtn Home and points south. 2" is possible points north including Nevada, Springfield, West Plains and Osage Beach. Greater than 2" is possible in Lebanon to Rolla to Salem. Isolated amounts around 4" if possible in parts of eastern Dent and Shannon counties.

NAM converted" 1" or less is forecast across Nevada to Joplin to Branson to Mtn Home and points south. 2" is forecast to fall across Springfield to Osceola to West Plains. Greater than 2" is possible across Houston to Lebanon to Osage Beach to Warsaw.

ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN INTO EARLY MARCH

Looking 384 hours out from now, the weather pattern appears active though it's too difficult to figure out which day over the next 16 days that a system will move through. Models continue to hint towards a system impacting us around the 4th and another one sometime between the 7-9th of March.

WINTER vs SPRING

A large portion of the viewing area saw a dusting of snow this morning. Parts of Christian, Greene, Webster, Dallas, Laclede, Texas and Phelps county saw .3" to .6" with isolated higher amounts to around 1" in northern Texas and southern Webster county.
This is a picture from my backyard(Feb 21, 2009) of winter fighting with spring. ;) I have a ton of bulbs coming up and it just looks odd to see a coating of snow around them. The sunshine is warm enough to melt the snow, while in the shade winter holds on strong.

Strong Tornado Sends Debris Far

An interesting presentation from the Tulsa National Weather Service Office:

http://www.srh.noaa.gov/tsa/weather-events/briefing_LoneGroveDebris/player.html

Snow Update

Snow Shot Early Saturday

A band of very light, but likely briefly intense, snow will rush through the Ozarks overnight Friday behind a strong cold front.

A dusting to perhaps a few tenths of an inch of snow may accumulate.