A supercell thunderstorm began to take shape in St Clair Co during the evening of February 26th.

It had good radar structure as it moved ESE through northern Polk Co. As it entered Dallas Co., it began to show signs of stronger rotation and the National Weather Service issued a tornado warning at about 6:15 pm.

The yellow callouts are wind damge reports and the green are hail reports.

The circulation center passed south of Lebanon.

WIND REPORTS

6:20 PM: LOUISBURG,MO, DALLAS CO.

ESTIMATED 50 MPH WIND GUST

6:30 PM: 2 NW WINDYVILLE,MO, DALLAS CO.

2 FT DIAMETER TREE DOWN BETWEEN PLAD AND WINDYVILLE OFF OF HWY K.

6:38 PM: BENNETT SPRINGS,MO, LACLEDE CO.

LARGE BILLBOARD PUSHED OVER BY WINDS.

7:22 PM: 5 SE FALCON, MO, CO.

PUBLIC REPORT OF 4 INCH DIAMETER TREE LIMBS BROKEN ON HIGHWAY 32

7:25 PM, FALCON, MO, LACLEDE CO.

WIND GUST ESTIMATED TO 70 MPH

Storm Potential Update

The 5% tornado risk was expanded this afternoon to include all of the eastern half of our viewing area.

Moisture is flowing northward which will aid in the instability but a lack of sunshine is inhibiting the potential somewhat. Individual cells will have to be watched in areas to the northwest of Springfield until the early evening hours for severe tendencies.

Otherwise, a squall line will eventually form and move southeast through our area the rest of the evening. Hail and bowing segments with damaging wind potential and a small risk for tornadoes are the threats.

SEVERE STORM THREAT THURSDAY

Storms are forecast to form in Illinois and areas to the northeast and then build southwestward along the cold front during the late afternoon and evening hours. There is a slight risk for severe storms today. The main threats would be damaging winds and hail. The chance for an isolated tornado or two cannot be ruled out. There is still a lot of question as to whether or not supercells will even form. The greatest chance for surface-based storms is across Arkansas, except for the NW corner. We'll continue to monitor this situation as it unfolds.

SNOW FOR THE 3RD WEEKEND IN A ROW?

The images above show total liquid forecast amounts for Saturday. Notice how the computer models do not agree on amounts but do agree on the general track of precipitation. Converting liquid amounts over to snow with each model, the general consensus is that the heaviest snow will fall east of Springfield or north.

GFS converted: 1" or less might fall in a line from Joplin to Branson to Mtn Home and points south. 2" is possible points north including Nevada, Springfield, West Plains and Osage Beach. Greater than 2" is possible in Lebanon to Rolla to Salem. Isolated amounts around 4" if possible in parts of eastern Dent and Shannon counties.

NAM converted" 1" or less is forecast across Nevada to Joplin to Branson to Mtn Home and points south. 2" is forecast to fall across Springfield to Osceola to West Plains. Greater than 2" is possible across Houston to Lebanon to Osage Beach to Warsaw.

ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN INTO EARLY MARCH

Looking 384 hours out from now, the weather pattern appears active though it's too difficult to figure out which day over the next 16 days that a system will move through. Models continue to hint towards a system impacting us around the 4th and another one sometime between the 7-9th of March.

WINTER vs SPRING

A large portion of the viewing area saw a dusting of snow this morning. Parts of Christian, Greene, Webster, Dallas, Laclede, Texas and Phelps county saw .3" to .6" with isolated higher amounts to around 1" in northern Texas and southern Webster county.
This is a picture from my backyard(Feb 21, 2009) of winter fighting with spring. ;) I have a ton of bulbs coming up and it just looks odd to see a coating of snow around them. The sunshine is warm enough to melt the snow, while in the shade winter holds on strong.

Strong Tornado Sends Debris Far

An interesting presentation from the Tulsa National Weather Service Office:

http://www.srh.noaa.gov/tsa/weather-events/briefing_LoneGroveDebris/player.html